Leeds Bradford - General Thread

[pug]

Re: Crosswind

I have no experience flying anything heavier than a Cessna, but I know that doing crosswind circuits as part of the PPL training is certainly interesting. The ammount of times I had could have taken out expensive runway lighting is frightning :shok:

 

[Galaxy]

Interestingly, my MOST WATCHED YouTube video (200,000+ hits) is of aircraft battling crosswinds at LBA from a couple of years ago.

[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3UPKQuvpGU[/video]

 

[White Heather]

None of those match the A320 trying to land at Hamburg in a Hurricane though! That has to be the scariest landing ever - or rather, non landing. It even made the National News here!! The cross wind is bad again today at LBA, with at least 5 diverts so far.

 

[Channex511]

Nice video Galaxy, thanks.

I've seen a few here over the last two days that would put some of them to shame.
The wind speed is one thing but, it's just so variable here at the moment.
As I sit here, a Dash8 is about to take off with winds gusting fifty-seven knots.
Good luck.

Paul

 

[whoshotjimmi]

It is interesting to read what John Parkin has to say regarding future development. His comments on a rail link are especially interesting, to me at least, as I do not necessarily share his level of optimism. Whilst a rail link is desirable and, indeed in some ways at least, crucial, I do not completely believe it to be acheivable - at least in the current juncture and, certainly, not to the extent to which it is planned. He speaks of completion of these works by 2021 but makes no mention of any work carried out or underway regarding such a link, not even at a broadly consultative stage.

Whilst this comes across as distinctly positive, I fear that it could just be an easy win with the right people - but what one says and what one does are different things.

I'm sure many will clap their hands and say "well done" but the scale of the problem is huge. A short connection to the Leeds - Harrogate line will cost easily in excess of £30m and, by the time it eventually does get started, probably much more than that. It requires full and complete co-operation from - among others - Network Rail, ORR, DfT, Metro, Northern Rail (or whichever company will be running trains by then), Leeds City Council and Bridgepoint and, with budgets being cut left, right and centre, it is probable that the ENTIRE project - construction, infrastructure, running trains etc - would have to be funded solely by the airport as there would be absolutely zero coming from the government and only a significantly limited amount coming from local PTE and businesses. Even then, there will probably be many, many stipulations by which the line is built and the success of the link would depend entirely on its integration within the national network and the work the airport does in advertising the link. In any case, it would likely not make a profit and require constant subsidy from one avenue or another. This is all before we start talking about a possible connection between the airport and Bradford.

The other feasible option would be to create the link as light rail. This, however, carries a whole other set of issues. Namely, such a build would either require full conversion of the Harrogate line or, more likely, the introduction of tram-trains - another project that the government has dropped like a stone. The former would be an incredibly time consuming and potentially very expensive project that would require a huge amount of infrastructure work around Leeds and the latter would require a turnaround from the DfT and would still require an amount of infrastrucure work between Leeds and the airport, though significantly less than the former and, certainly, more affordable.

I don't want people to think I am against a rail link - far from it. A link would be hugely beneficial to the airport and the surrounding area and economy. It would also help the Surface Access issue, of which I am very vocal and passionate but we are faced with an overwhelming and stark reality: Rising oil prices which threaten the industry; rising inflation which threatens disposable income, a government with no money for small projects such as this, an airport who have promised far more than they have currently delivered with a budget of £70m of which £28m is going on terminal redevelopment and the necessity to gain full support from an array of traditionally warring organisations for a project that will, in all likelihood, not make a profit.

For the time being, at least, I will congratulate his thinking that it is the way forward but will remain cautious with regards to implementation until I see any actual work on it.

As an aside, it is good to see LBA passenger numbers back up again in 2010 following a worryingly sharp decline in 2009. No doubt where the applause for that lies. It is still not at the levels seen in 2007/8 but at least load factors look significantly healthier. What does concern me though is the seemingly overall trend which is downward. There is no doubt that, without Ryanair, passenger figures would have reduced further. Partly, of course, the effect of ash clouds and poor weather but mainly, it would seem, the loss of services - chiefly by Jet2.

I have been increasingly disappointed with some aspects of LBA recently. I know expansion is not exactly the main concern right now but losing services, especially some of the smaller ones such as Edinburgh and Glasgow and now Exeter/Aberdeen all through apparent poor performance is quite concerning. Jet2 are becoming a charter airline, whichever way we want to look at it and are currently concentrating expansion in other airports. One might state survivability but the upshot is that we do not have as broad a range of choice as, perhaps, once we did and the likes of Ryanair have not exactly added an awful lot in terms of destination, choosing mainly to expand in already catered for markets. The talk of FlyBe wishing to expand at the aiport continues but nothing happens and I would have thought the poor weather performance of LBA over the last couple of months will be making Easyjet a little more cautious about sending in a couple more routes.

I have posted elsewhere regarding expansion that I believe to be achievable at LBA both with and without improvements to surface access.

Whilst a rail link will doubtless create new opportunities that would otherwise remain elusive, it will not mean the end of expansion (I cite Bristol and Liverpool as examples of this) and, with that in mind, I can't help feeling that, despite current conditions, a huge trick has been missed.

WizzAir have continued expansion into Donny and, from April, will actually have a reasonably sized operation from the field. My point is this, if Doncaster can support a growing operation to Poland/Lithuania, surely LBA can, at the very least, match it? And if not by stealing WizzAir, then at least through some new routes by the likes of Ryanair and Jet2? I know LBA has Krakow (which they do not) and now Gdansk but the operation will certainly turn heads if it turns out to be a success as it will certainly be a one-upmanship over LBA.

Which brings me nicely back to John Parkin who states that the people of West Yorkshire do not have the choice of routes they should be afforded. Well John, have a quick peep down the road at Donny....

James

 

[White Heather]

Interesting post James, and yes, I am sure all of us agree that we should be doing more to challenge DSA's Poland and Lithuania services, although it has to be said that in most respects, LBA is light years ahead of DSA on services available. You have highlighted one of only two areas in which DSA have the lead (the other being Thomson Holidays).

You also mention the loss of LBA services to Glasgow Edinburgh and Exeter/Aberdeen. Is this new information, because as of yesterday the only route we had lost was London Gatwick? (I hardly dare look at the rest of this forum now!!)

As for the rail link, I can assure you that LBA will not be funding it and that if it happens it will have to be funded by a combination of all interested parties, probably including Government Funding. The intention also is to use a Tram Train, and the type of vehicle intended for use was supposed to be being trialled at some point. I understand that the airport, Metro and all other business partners are already talking about this, but as you rightly point out, the economy will need to be better for it to happen. Since even John Parkin admits it is a 'long term' project, there is some time for that to happen, but at least people are in the early stages of planning for it now, and the airport has already put aside land within its boundaries for the station. Whether or not it ever makes a profit remains to be seen, but with a loop link through to Guiseley, enabling (for example) Bradord to be linked direct to Harrogate and vice versa, plus Horsforth to be linked with Bradford, you never know.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Sorry, my comments regarding loss of services was probably a little ambiguous and misleading. I was, in fact, referring to reductions in frequencies on Edinburgh, Glasgow and Exeter/Aberdeen. Of course, the Edinburgh and Glasgow rotations have been 2xdaily for a period of time now but the reductions to the latter from daily to 5xweekly are forthcoming. The point I was making was more general with regards to the gradual loss of service and frequency - the BMI network being the most obvious example. I could go further and talk about the loss of 3xdaily Paris, Copenhagen, LHR etc etc.

At the time of writing, I wasn't fully aware of the loss of Gatwick which was apparently doing well and is an absolute hammerblow. I have seen enough comments from other sources to suggest that this was not a result of poor performance but rather FlyBe requirements and priorities changing, which in itself is quite worrying. If nothing else, it shows that confidence in LBA possibly isn't as good as we would all like to think. It does, however, reinforce my point about the loss of such services and the associated drop in passenger numbers.

An official statement on a well know social networking site has claimed that a replacement for the LGW is being sought ASAP. Which leads to the question - Who exactly is able to take it on?

If the Airport are not going to be funding the rail link project directly, I have serious doubts as to its probability. Let's be honest here, the governement will not spend a penny on providing new transport infrastructure in Leeds, as the recent Tram and Trolleybus schemes have proven and these were projects that projected a significant boost to the local economy. I can't help but feel that the only possible option that is open is to build the bare minimum in the medium term due to the distinct lack of money. That is a link to Horsforth as heavy rail and use as much of the existing infrastructure as possible and leave any future links to Bradford to the long term. Of course, I am just speculating but these relatively small and potentially hugely expensive projects are dead in the water and will be for at least the next 10 years. The Glasgow airport link is the prime example of that. And that is an airport with vastly different needs and demographic to LBA.

James

 

[White Heather]

Yes James, we have suffered reductions in a good few domestic services over the past couple of years, in addition to those failed BMI routes to the likes of Copenhagen and Lille (why on EARTH did they ever fly to Lille??), plus Cork, Shannon, Galway, Inverness, Madrid, Valencia. We have actually done well to hang on the routes such as EDI and GLA, since the passenger numbers have diminished as the economy went pear shaped, and the aircraft operating the routes are not exactly economic. Perhaps it does show that BMi (or British Midland as they are again I believe) have faith in the longer term and want to hang on to them both.
However, other airports have lost domestic services too - this is more to do with the economy than LBA. Despite all of this, at least LBA is the fastest growing airport in the UK in terms of passenger growth. We have had 21% increases in the past couple of months, whilst others are standing still and not recovering their losses. Overall, the picture for LBA is quite rosy at the side of other airports, and although we have lost those routes, we have gained a few new ones during the same period, mostly operating on larger aircraft too. So there is more good news than bad at the moment at LBA.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

I fear the optimism on passenger growth is slightly misplaced. Unless something significant happens between now and summer, the airport is looking at consolidation of numbers rather than growth. Given financial uncertainty and the loss of LGW, the figures could well turn out to be much less positive. The loss of LGW will most likely not be offset by extra capacity on AMS but a strong year for them could prove me wrong - as ever with them, KLM connection is going to be the key to any success. The last couple of months' figures will still be boosted by the arrival of Ryanair - this will not be the case going forward.

I can't see BMI lasting on Edinburgh and Glasgow much longer. Whilst they probably generate enough traffic to keep it going for now, increasing oil prices will render the aircraft type useless before long. I can see a future for the route, but not with BMI. I would be delighted to be proven wrong of course as my experiences of BMI when I used to frequent their services to CDG and LHR were wonderful - especially those on the ERJ's. Brussels would probably survive given the business traffic.

Undoubtedly, the figures compared to other UK airports last year were favourable but I believe LBA will be much more in line with the rest in 2011, if not, slightly behind. As I have stated before, the interesting figures will be those coming from DSA imo. I also think the big winners for 2011 will be Glasgow and East Mids with Jet2 expansion.

 

[lbaspotter]

Hi

Regarding the LBA to Edinburgh and Glasgow routes if bmi regional did ever decide to pack them both in we have known for a while now that Loganair are waiting in there wings to take over both routes.

They have been applying for slots every 6 months for at least 2 years now to operate both services 3x times daily with Saab 340's.

 

[Aviador]

We have extra flights to Turkey this summer, extra daily flights to Amsterdam and I think somebody mentioned an average of 1 extra per day from Ryanair so although not fantastic, we should still see a small amount of growth.

 

[eastcoaster]

We have all seen the disastrous passenger figures on the BMI EDI/GLA over the last 2 years fall from 4000 each a month to around 1000 per month. Has anyone notices how the last 2 months the GLA has shown an increase on the same period last year? Have we turned a corner or is it just a coincidence, ie less flights cancelled this year as the weather was not as bad as last years. I guess time will tell over the next few months.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

We have extra flights to Turkey this summer, extra daily flights to Amsterdam and I think somebody mentioned an average of 1 extra per day from Ryanair so although not fantastic, we should still see a small amount of growth.

Am I right in thinking the extra Turkey flights are replacements for those suspended with the collapse of Goldtrail? 1 extra daily flight to AMS with a 70ish seat plane would generate roughly 15-20k ppa if load factors are good compared to the loss of 50k on LGW.

It is then important to take into account rapidly increasing oil prices and inflation which will undoubtedly dilute demand for air travel, leaving domestic routes especially vulnerable (reduction of EXE-ABZ etc). It could play into the hands of Ryanair to some extent but I believe it would probably mean more passengers choosing Ryanair over Jet2 on competing routes than generating new custom, again diluting figures rather than adding to them.

As an addition, 1 extra Ryanair flight a day for a full year with a load factor of 100% would only generate 140k passengers. In any case, with associated additions and cancellations, we are only going to be talking about the possibility of a few thousand in growth at the absolute best. The figures may also be slightly warped in April from 2010's ash cloud. But that would not represent real growth - only showing what would have been acheived in 2010 had airspace not been closed.

Consolidation would be an absolute result this year. LBA's apalling weather performance is bound to be getting people talking with regards to keeping costs to a minimum and certainly won't be helping pull in new airlines or encouraging growth from others. I just hope that it doesn't in fact prove more serious than that. There is only so much cost absorbing that the likes of Ryanair will put up with.

James

 

[White Heather]

James, there is no doubt that in the past few weeks, LBA has had too many weather problems, mainly strong cross winds and low cloud/fog, but since Ryanair are pulling in passengers in large numbers it would take more than that to persuade them to abandon LBA. I would also point out that during Decembers apalling snow, LBA re-opened from the snow within 24 hours, whilst DSA took a week.

In the current climate, standing still on passenger numbers is good news as many airports are going backwards. LBA isn't even standing still - it is moving forward, currently quickly, but even if that slows down and growth is minimal, that remains a major success in the current climate and with domestic passengers falling across the country. We sometimes paint a picture that suggests that the loss of a route is a blow to LBA, which it often is, but we also need remember it is also a lost route to the airport at the other end, so a loss to them also. At the end of the day, LBA has climbed up the airport ladder recently in the UK, so relatively speaking, LBA is growing compared to other similar sized airports.

 

[ryan]

I would also point out that during Decembers apalling snow, LBA re-opened from the snow within 24 hours, whilst DSA took a week.

Most of Doncaster was closed for a week, not just the airport. It was that bad, most people couldn't even get out of their houses, let alone drive across the town to clear an airport runway. Not forgetting the runway at DSA being slightly wider than most other airports in the country (60m vs 45m), resulting in more snow needing to be cleared.

 

[pug]

resulting in more snow needing to be cleared.

I could be wrong but Im not sure the width is important. Is the asphalt at LBA as wide as DSA anyway, sure Ive read it somewhere?

 

[Aviador]

The designated width of the runway at LBA is 46 metres plus a 7 metre wide hard shoulder strips at either side make the total width at LBA the same as that at DSA. Most aircraft don't require the full width (or lengh) clearing either.30m cleared width would usually allow most aircraft movements.

 

[White Heather]

Ryan, we had this debate on the DSA forum at the time. Whatever the weather was in Doncaster, it was little different to Leeds, and I spent time in both places at that time. There was no excuse whatsoever for them failing to clear the DSA runway. However, that is not the issue - it was being stated that LBA has terrible weather, but the point is that this is not only something that affects LBA. It affected DSA in December, and EDI, and GLA and NCL and LGW and LHR, and in fact, although LBA is the highest in the country and still had 9 inches of snow, it was cleared the next day, probably because LBA is the best prepared regional airport for such weather. I am sure at the time, airlines recognised that fact and appreciated that on that occasion, LBA was open when many more were not.

 

[ryan]

Well if 4ft of compact snow isn't a good enough excuse, then I don't know what is!

 

[wawkrk]

DSA had 4ft of snow?