American Airlines

[Dobbo]

Cheers. Is the JFK a B763 all season?

It'll be interesting to see the disparity in numbers on MAN-JFK from the high season (say August) and the dead of winter (say January). Bet it's huge.

 

[ethanegcc]

JFK is a wide body all season, yes.

 

[ethanegcc]

Further Update: Manchester-Chicago showing as daily 767 up until 8th January 2018 (last outbound), whereas PHL flights loaded as daily onwards from that date on Amadeus (6 weekly with no Wed flight into Feb). Doesn't look like it will be year-round, therefore, but still a longer season and 767 daily service, instead of 757 and reduced frequency. Better a little good news, than no news at all!

 

[Dobbo]

ORD downgrade to B752 from early June to early July. Continues to struggle.

 

[Land23R]

I think there is growing and irrefutable evidence that AA is fast losing serious interest in MAN and last years debacle with the B787 on ORD didn't help. In my view, the balance of probability is that we won't see them on ORD or JFK in 2018.

PHL is very variable. Seat plans recently have shown loads as high as nearly 90% but as low as 50%. No surprise that it's certain days of the week that are more popular than others.

What this means re the BA rumours remains to be seen. Reports suggest that there really were/are plans to do something at MAN. If so, the question is whether the 'Trump Slump' and current exchange rates will lead to any such plans being put back on the shelf, tipped in the bin or still going ahead.

 

[Dobbo]

I think that's a fair comment.

Unless more inbound tourism and business is generated between the North and the USA, these services will struggle.

Recent developments suggest links between the North and the rest of the world are far stronger East than west. That may be the shape of things to come in the short term.

 

[IanFarquharson]

AA quit BHX and think it is only a matter of time they will retreat from MAN
All they are really interested in is LHR
I would like to see of the loads / yields from LHR but it is all about slots !

 

[Dobbo]

AA quit BHX and think it is only a matter of time they will retreat from MAN
All they are really interested in is LHR
I would like to see of the loads / yields from LHR but it is all about slots !

I think this needs to be put in context.

AA have had a pretty shocking time at MAN in terms of reliability and quality of the offering. They have also been put under considerable pressure from TCX and VS. Those factors have been compounded by the currency fluctuation and Trump effect.

There is an expectation that BA will take over from their JV partner and AAs actions have all the hallmarks of such a move.

Whilst there may be similarities, the position at MAN is different from that at LHR and that at BHX. I don't think it is as simple as a like for like comparison.

 

[ethanegcc]

One of the reasons for the 787 operation originally was 'we value the importance of the Manchester market'. The 787 was a terrible fail, with reliability levels at a low.

This year, the 787-8 will operate the Dublin route and Paris route out of Chicago and, whilst I know the situations with those destinations are different in the current climate, it's nice to know we are still valued.

Chicago could be on the up though despite this, with schedules currently continuing to the 10th of January, six-weekly 767. Philadelphia is actually performing quite well, considering the conditions. The LFs consistently average about 80% and I believe the yields are good - the product is also much superior on the A330, than the 767/757 offered on the other AA routes so for someone who uses AA often ex-MAN, this could be a deciding factor. I will be flying on the route in April (PHL) but a family member flew into MAN from Philadelphia in the middle of February (low season) on a Thursday night departure and said the flight was about 80% full.

 

[Land23R]

I would be very pleasantly surprised if ORD continued 6 x weekly with a B767 until the 10 January when Dobbo's earlier posts indicated it's only a B757 for part of the summer season June and early July. Are you sure ORD is bookable after 31 Oct? I thought it had been reported it wasn't.

On PHL, the LF I reckoned was 73% in January based on 58 sectors, which isn't bad by any means. Let's see how February comes out.

 

[ethanegcc]

I would be very pleasantly surprised if ORD continued 6 x weekly with a B767 until the 10 January when Dobbo's earlier posts indicated it's only a B757 for part of the summer season June and early July. Are you sure ORD is bookable after 31 Oct? I thought it had been reported it wasn't.

On PHL, the LF I reckoned was 73% in January based on 58 sectors, which isn't bad by any means. Let's see how February comes out.

I hope you will be pleasantly surprised and they don't change it:
View attachment 4606
It is New York that is now only 26th March-28th October. Philadelphia drops to six-weekly A330-200, as it did this year for the darkest of the darkest (15th Jan-end of Feb), otherwise completely bookable as daily.

 

[Dobbo]

"Often delayed by 30+ m"

 

[ethanegcc]

"Often delayed by 30+ m"

Bit of an understatement. For last summer it should have read, "Often doesn't take-off"
In fact, that screenshot illustrates most of the problems with AA's ORD route from MAN:
1) reliability
2) onboard product 'stream to your device', 'power in some seats', 'no wifi'

If you look at Delta's JFK route/United's MAN-EWR/EDI-ORD there's
1) no statement about it being delayed
2) 'on demand video for every seat', 'in-seat and USB power' and 'wifi'

 

[Brum X]

ORD downgrade to B752 from early June to early July. Continues to struggle.

Also the AA JFK-MAN now on 752 for the exact same period, plus it appears September/October ??

 

[Dobbo]

Also the AA JFK-MAN now on 752 for the exact same period, plus it appears September/October ??

Yep - fits in with pattern of AAs recent decisions. Flat market, with an expanding TCX and DL/VS = AA downgague.

 

[Dobbo]

Ps - the irony of BA coming in to "save" the AA/BA JV at MAN would not be lost on me!

 

[Brum X]

Whilst English Regional airports are starting to suffer with the US legacy carriers, meanwhile up in Scotland they appear to be expanding ?? Any reason for this, is it the Norweigan effect maybe ??

 

[Land23R]

[QUOTE="ethanegcc, post: 101343, member: 8504

It is New York that is now only 26th March-28th October. [/QUOTE]

Quite right Ethan; my mistake, but then I'm easily confused these days!

 

[thunderchild]

In my view, the balance of probability is that we won't see them on ORD or JFK in 2018.

I wouldn't be surprised if JFK got the chop and it could be beneficial - ORD is by far the bigger hub and offers way more connections.

Dropping JFK and going year round ORD could be the answer?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

As MAN is the busiest UK transatlantic airport outside London this might be an appropriate thread to ask if anyone can tell me why the so-called Trump Slump would affect UK-USA passenger numbers (ie British people) to the degree that is reported.

I can understand people from certain ethnic, religious or national backgrounds being wary or even not wanting to travel to a Trump-led USA, even when they hold British passports, but why would so many British people not from these categories be unwilling to travel?

I ask in this thread because it may be that the phenomenon has been discussed in the Manchester press or even in MAN circles.