American Airlines

[ethanegcc]

And, obviously, the MAN flight is still three weeks away, whilst my LHR flight is just one so there is prospectus for the load on that flight to grow until that time.

 

[Dobbo]

I noticed BA are increasing Lax from LHR to 3 a day from 2.

Just an interesting fact to throw into the UK USA market.

I suspect this reflects the stronger USA-London inbound market - which has obviously made the UK 20% ish cheaper than before. It may also reflect the more European like west coast citizens getting away from the so-called Trump effect!

 

[7griffinjack]

I suspect this reflects the stronger USA-London inbound market - which has obviously made the UK 20% ish cheaper than before. It may also reflect the more European like west coast citizens getting away from the so-called Trump effect!

Only problem is that it is reported that many Americans are avoiding Europe for the time being due to the recent increases in terrorism. They generally seem to be more weary. Hopefully the cheaper cost will outweigh that and number of US visitors increases!

 

[Dobbo]

Only problem is that it is reported that many Americans are avoiding Europe for the time being due to the recent increases in terrorism. They generally seem to be more weary. Hopefully the cheaper cost will outweigh that and number of US visitors increases!

Perhaps, and I don't know how Europe is being portrayed over there, but the USA is such a diverse society that I suspect it is portrayed in different ways in different states. My perception is that California is less likely to be impacted by that sort of publicity, but who knows!

 

[ethanegcc]

First Cancellation of the season: AA55 to Chicago is cancelled today.

 

[Dobbo]

Its going to be interesting to see what happens here this year, and how it might affect future plans. The picture is very unclear, other than it cannot continue like last year.

IAG now have their LEVEL brand, but BA now seem to be thinking about BoB long haul. What kind of airline do they want BA to be, where does LEVEL fit in with the IAG stable?

I don't know whether there are any issues with the JV. Does TATL traffic need to be under the AA/BA JV? Could LEVEL be added to it?

Lots to think about as we keep our eye on AA this year.

 

[ethanegcc]

AA using the 757 from September to January this year, but they do have a slightly longer season and are remaining on higher frequency than previously. On airliners.net, there is a rumour that ORD will go year-round from Manchester and this isn't a huge jump, just between Jan 10th and March 26th.

If we can have 757 Oct-Mar and 788 in S18, this would be really satisfying in the current climate. ORD seems to be performing well for them at the moment, so one to watch. They are trying to build-up their Chicago hub against United, so this could be one step in doing so. Also, all but MAN are being operated by 787s this summer (long haul from ORD), so hopefully this will be a 787 in S18, if BA don't take over. I may be using this service next year so I'm hoping this is the case.

 

[Dobbo]

Whereas DL/VS should want to build ATL/JFK to daily year round - the same applies for AA/BA at PHL/JFK/ORD. This rumour is a decent indicator they are moving in the right direction...

 

[groobs]

ORD seems to be performing well for them at the moment, so one to watch.

Not really, they've downgraded to a 752 from a 763 for all of June and a little of July. Seems to me they are just about holding their head above water on the route.

 

[Land23R]

I think that's a fairer conclusion groobs. May and June weren't great last year and average loads could have been accommodated on a B757. In the build up and during the first half of the school holidays for Easter this year, outbound loads were healthier, but this weekend outbound loads are disappointing while inbounds are better, attributable in the main probably to those earlier departing pax returning.

It's not just AA to ORD I should add. The DL to ATL on the B777 tomorrow is very thin but this evening's flight from ATL has a decent load according to seat maps.

 

[ethanegcc]

AA734 Philadelphia-Manchester 20th April

Flew this flight on the 20th April, happy to report it was great service and a decent product on the A330-200. Every seat in business and economy was taken, according to what I saw and comments from the cabin crew, which was superb news to fill an A332 daily!

Also, many connecting passengers from New Orleans, Tampa, Orlando etc. using the service and I also heard many American accents with people travelling to Manchester from Minneapolis/Philadelphia to destinations such as Matlock/Bakewell and North Wales - which was great to hear.

My LHR-PHL flight on the way out (11th April) was less than 50% full with every passenger having atleast two seats to themselves and the middle '4' row being taken for passengers to sleep sideways on. The Business Class cabin was also only half-full. LHR-PHL has four flights a day (2 AA A333, 1 BA 744 and 1 DL 757) which is clearly overkill so, in the present climate, the only reason I can see that MAN-PHL would be reduced if AA wanted to draw passengers down to Heathrow, or preserve their slots, which I think would be the wrong attitude.

Overall, I really enjoyed the flight and it was nice to fly back into Manchester. When I disembarked the plane in T3 arrivals, I could see the other two AA wide bodies just arrived from JFK and ORD and I was very proud of my "little" airport!

 

[Aceshigh]

"only reason I can see that MAN-PHL would be reduced if AA wanted to draw passengers down to Heathrow, or preserve their slots, which I think would be the wrong attitude."

Wrong attitude but will be a misguided business decision made no doubt by London based managers OR the US.

 

[ethanegcc]

"only reason I can see that MAN-PHL would be reduced if AA wanted to draw passengers down to Heathrow, or preserve their slots, which I think would be the wrong attitude."

Wrong attitude but will be a misguided business decision made no doubt by London based managers OR the US.

Exactly, and I think that this is the problem with US airlines, but I think that PHL is a fundamentally strong route with load factors, yields and frequency consistent year-round, so I am confident.

Hopefully more US originating traffic - if we can get it - would reverse this attitude.

 

[Land23R]

Exactly, and I think that this is the problem with US airlines, but I think that PHL is a fundamentally strong route with load factors, yields and frequency consistent year-round, so I am confident.

Hopefully more US originating traffic - if we can get it - would reverse this attitude.

Ethan, I'm delighted your return flight from PHL ro MAN was full. Indeed, there were some very healthy loads on all the AA flights from MAN in the build up to Easter. However, since Easter, the loads on some PHL and ORD outbound flights have been disappointing. For example, looking at the seat map an hour before departure for MAN-PHL on the 20th, the outbound load was less than 100 pax. (ORD was just over 80). However, I suspect the inbound loads for what is primarily UK originating traffic since Easter have been much healthier as pax return from their US visit.

It is not correct in my view to state that LFs are consistent year round on PHL. In my experience they range from very good on some days to abysmal. From the CAA monthly stats from last May, the highest LF I reckoned was 76% in October. Aug, Sep, Dec and Jan'17 had LFs from 71-75%. May, June, July, Nov and Feb.
ranged from 52% to 65%. Now I don't claim 100% accuracy every month, but the figures are not that far out.

Let's see whether this summer brings better loads. What the yields are like is another matter, and I will say that when I've looked at seat maps, there has generally been reasonable occupancy of the 20 J class seats.

 

[ethanegcc]

It is not correct in my view to state that LFs are consistent year round on PHL. In my experience they range from very good on some days to abysmal. From the CAA monthly stats from last May, the highest LF I reckoned was 76% in October. Aug, Sep, Dec and Jan'17 had LFs from 71-75%. May, June, July, Nov and Feb.

Yes, Easter Holidays will have played a part. 71-76% is still a pretty consistent load factor though, with not much seasonality, unlike other route. The (now cancelled) BA LHR-CTU route had load factors ranging from 40% to 70% around the year, so I think this is a good solid year-round route, served by the same aircraft year-round and similar frequencies despite a drop in the lower seasons, even if some days are busier than others.

 

[Land23R]

Apologies Ethan. I somehow managed to post reply before I'd finished the text, so hence the added 'edit'

 

[ethanegcc]

Apologies Ethan. I somehow managed to post reply before I'd finished the text, so hence the added 'edit'

Thank you. Remember that in the lowest seasons, though, with an A330-200, 60% occupancy is still quite good, and I believe the PHL route is strong for business travel, so it is still reasonable and is strong in my opinion. May, June and July should be touching more 70% LFs though. November and February on a 6x weekly basis A330-200 could be forgiven!

 

[groobs]

I'm on the reverse AA735 MAN-PHL next month and currently the seat map shows half full in J class. Not looked at the rest of the plane as yet

Coming back from ORD on a plane that started out as a 787 then a 763 and now a 752! Again the seat map shows half led the seats have been selected.

 

[Land23R]

This morning's AA 211 to JFK apparently turned back before DUB and returned to MAN. That may be the reason this evening's AA210 from JFK according to the seat map is a B757. It's showing about 140 pax but the 16 seats in J class full, so I suspect there may be a few disappointed Business pax downgraded.

I'm assuming the flight wasn't originally scheduled as a B757.

 

[Land23R]

What a surprise - not. The AA210 which was down as a B757 has been cancelled. Those 140 pax will no doubt be enjoying / enduring a flight via LHR instead. I'd settle for an extra night in New York

Thinks ... they must have fixed the B767 that returned yesterday for today's outbound.
WRONG: Today's AA210 is showing as cancelled on the departure boards.

What a shower. Afraid my confidence in AA's longer term commitment to MAN is diminishing fast.