Bristol: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

May 2009

The trend continues with Bristol down 17.3% at 489,545 passengers handled in May compared with May 2008. This can be said to be almost entirely due to the reduction in atms compared with a year ago that are down 17.5%.

The rolling 12-month figure is 5,771,520, down 6.5% on a year ago. You have to go back to 2007 to find a rolling 12-month period as low as this.

The other airports in the 5-6 million bracket, although they are all rapidly slipping into the 4-5 million bracket, are Belfast International, Liverpool, East Midlands and Newcastle.

Broadly speaking they seem to be faring similarly to Bristol.

Their May 2009 and rolling 12-month figures and percentages are as follows:

East Midlands - 435,427, down 18.5% 5,159,982 down 8.6%
Liverpool - 426,366 down 12.1% 5,001,491 down 8.6%
Belfast Int - 401,188 down 16.2% 4,961,887 down 5.4%
Newcastle 435,702 down 7% 4,790,534 down 11.6%

Picking out one or two items at random at BRS, the CO EWR service continues to disappoint with passenger numbers. May 2009 saw only 7,439 passengers on the route (ave load 120, load factor 69%), down 12% on May 2008. When one considers that 2008 was down over 3% on 2007 for these years in total it must concern both airline and airport that in the first five months of 2009 the number of passengers flown is down 13% on the first five months of 2008.

A brighter note saw nearly 20,000 flying to Amsterdam, 9% down on May 2008, but this summer KLM has reduced rotations to 3 per weekday from 4 last year. The daily easyJet remains so, assuming the easyJet loads were roughly the same in 08 and 09, it will mean the KLM load factors have increased significantly.

Perhaps one less international hub from Bristol this summer (Frankfurt) has benefited this route. Ryanair also flies to Eindhoven three times a week (route started at end of March) and it can be assumed that this took away at least a few of the AMS customers. The FR route, as I expected, isn't doing well with loads. Average for May was 88 (load factor 46%) which is actually a bit better than I anticipated.

Some charter routes are horrendous - Sharm el Sheikh was down 73%, solely because last year there were four weekly flights, this year only one. Well, actually a second one is due to start at the beginning of July but this is still a tremendous reduction in seat numbers.

Turkey is better with 18,500 flown to the three Turkish destinations which is up around 18% on May 2008 when there were four destinations (no Izmir this year).

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

June 2009

539,041 passengers handled in June 2009, down 12.3% on June 2008. Atms were down 12.7% so the loss of passengers can be attributed entirely to the reduced number of flights. Charters bore the brunt with some routes down 70% on last year, and scheduled routes to FRA (LH) and OSL (SAS) didn't operate this June unlike last year.

Rolling total for the 12-months ending June 2009 is 5,699,201, down 8.2% on a year ago.

Will be interesting to see what the new Ryanair routes do to stem the monthly losses when the July figures are published.

One bright note was the CO route to EWR which was up 6% on June 2008. 8186 people flew the route giving an average load of over 136 or 78% load factor.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

It seems that easyJet has not brought back the 12th based aircraft for the peak summer period as it did last year.

That, coupled with a big charter flight reduction and the loss of LH and SAS this summer means that there are fewer seats available from/to the airport each week than this time last year.

In peak summer 08 there were around 195,000 seats in total on offer at the airport each week whereas this summer the total is around 180,000 (source: BRS Mayfly), a reduction of something under 8%.

Even the doubling of the Ryanair base from two to four in early July has only increased the number of weekly Ryanair rotations by about 40% (81 last year, 114 this year) because some routes are now operated by BRS-based aircraft instead of equipment from other bases as was the case last year.

If the BRS July figures are down by around 9% it will mean loads across the board will have been broadly similar to July 2008 - the extra Ryanair aircraft missed the first few days of July.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Reference my previous post, easyJet has brought back the 12th based A319 but only for a very limited part of the main summer season.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

July 2009

BRS handled 630,124 passengers in July, down 3.4% on July 2008. Atms for the month were down 5.4% and with there being in the region of 7-8% fewer seats available during July compared with July 2008 the figures are very encouraging because they point to higher load factors.

The figures are better than I had expected and confirm the notices on the airport website imploring passengers to arrive early in August as numbers are back to near 2008 levels.

The expanded Ryanair base is clearly the main factor for these improved figures compared with the year as a whole.

August 2008 was the airport's best ever month with over 700,000 passengers. It will be interesting to see how close to this August 2009 is.

However, the rolling 12-month total is down 9% at 5,681,839 so much remains to be done to turn this into a positive figure.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Promising figures there 'TheLocalYokel' I stand by my theory that this winter will be the worst period for most UK airports followed by a general recovery next summer.

How is the CO EWR service performing now?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Agreed, and I believe that Bristol being one of the last UK regional airports to be adversely affected by the world economic downturn will be one of the first to recover when economies improve.

The CO to EWR is doing OK - can't say better than that.

For most of the months of 2009 loads have been down on 2008 with June being an exception - saw a rise of 6% over the previous June.

July was down 5% at 8386, average load 135, load factor 77%.

I think overall this year numbers are down over 3,000 which will probably lead to a reduction of 5-10% for the whole year.

I note several other UK CO routes to EWR are down in July, though slightly less percentage-wise than BRS, albeit BRS carries the lowest loads of them all.

CO must be making money somehow on the BRS-EWR as they've been going well over four years with loads less than their other UK routes every year.

I still read letters in the local press complaining how expensive CO is from BRS and the writers have used other carriers from Heathrow instead so perhaps that's the reason (and a good deal from the BRS management), although when I do the odd spot check on the CO website the fares don't seem much different to the CO fares from the likes of BHX or BFS.

As you know, each year I expect them to axe the route but it persists. One would hope that if they stick at it through the current economic woes it might last another four years. :tease:

If they lose the CO route the anti-expansionists will have a field day. They rejoiced when LH pulled the FRA route saying it proved that BRS was not a business airport and was fit only for the outbound leisure travellers that the antis despise.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Hopefully it will continue to attract enough loads to maintain the service.

If they lose the CO route the anti-expansionists will have a field day. They rejoiced when LH pulled the FRA route saying it proved that BRS was not a business airport and was fit only for the outbound leisure travellers that the antis despise.

The way business travel has transformed over recent years has seen many of the old business type full services go from many airports to be replaced by low cost airlines serving the same destinations, sometimes just with a once daily service. Many businessmen choose to ditch the traditional full service airliness in favour of low cost services these days as an increasing number of businesses are getting wise to excessive airline charges.

Blooming NIMBY's! :shout:

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

August 2009

672,483 passengers were handled, down 4.6% on August 2008.

There are some promising signs still. Atms for the month were down more at 5.6%, so loads would have been fractionally higher on average, and the August 09 total of passengers was the second highest monthly total in the airport's history following the 700,000-plus of August 2008. The August 09 figure was 32,000 more than August 2007 when the airport was in the midst of a growth spurt.

The rolling 12-month figure is 5,649,424, down 10.4% on a year ago.

Another piece of good news is that Continental carried 9,622 (ave load load 155, load factor 88.5%) on its EWR service, up 4% on August 08.

The August 09 total is the highest of any month since the route started in May 2005. How perverse that this should occur at a time of severe recession and fares haven't been cheap either.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

September 2009

The airport handled 592,330 pasengers in the month, down 2.5% on September 2008. Atms were down 3.6% so average loads were probably little changed from last year.

12-month rolling total was 5,639,360, down 10.8% on a year ago.

A superficial assessment is that the slowdown is bottoming out as it will begin to do so at other UK airports but, as I suggested earlier, because BRS was one of the last airports to feel the pinch so it will be amongst the first to begin to recover.

Had it not been for the expanded Ryanair base taking the place (in terms of pure passenger figures) of XL, LH, SAS and other that pulled out for varying reasons, as well as reduced charter traffic across the big providers, the figures would be nowhere near as promising as they are.

Another hopeful sign is the continuing resurgence of Continental, at least in passenger numbers.

September 2009 saw 8665 passengers carried on the EWR route and although this is down 1% on September 2009 the airline withdrew the Wednesday rotation midway through the month, whereas in previous years it has operated daily until early November before going to 5 x weekly.

September's average load was just over 160 giving a load factor of just above 91%, the highest monthly lf in the route's history. Had the route operated daily across the entire month an average load of 160+ would have given it its highest monthly figure ever.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

[textarea]Average Bristol passenger is 43, earns £44,000 and uses airport parking

A new survey by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) suggests the average passenger at Bristol Airport flies for leisure, drives there by car and uses airport parking, is 43 years old and has a household income of £44,000 a year.

The CAA questioned 200,000 people at the big London airports plus five regional airports last year. It found Bristol has the highest proportion of leisure travellers, with 86% flying for breaks and holidays, and just 14% for business.

Only 16% get to the airport by public transport - whereas between a third and a half of passengers at London airports arrive by bus, train or taxi. The average passenger has a household income of around £44,000 a year, which is significantly lower than the £79,000 a year for passengers at London City airport.

Source[/textarea]

I always thought that it was a misconception that low cost flights were for the predominantly less well off, this just proves it. It just goes to show that you should look after your penny's because the pounds will look after there-selves.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

This is taken from a CAA survey into passenger travelling habits at LHR, LGW, STN, LTN, LCY, MAN, BRS, CWL and EXT last year. I don't know where the quoted report gets the idea of five regional airports - there were only four in the survey, plus the five London area airports.

The survey was alluded to on the other forum for Wales air links and led me to have a look at the CAA web site.

I can't confess to having read the over one hundred pages of mostly tabular statistics but I did pick up on one or two matters mentioned on the Wales board.

What interested me was the information relating to getting to/from the airports.

As the above report states, the London airports had by far and away the highest proportion of passengers using public transport with London City coming out top at a fraction under 50%.

Of the four regional airports surveyed Bristol had the highest proportion of travellers using public transport - 15.8%, even more than Manchester at 10.4%. The lowest was Exeter at 3.2% with Cardiff over 8%.

Clearly these surveys can never be relied on as a one hundred per cent accurate representation of all travellers but they do show trends.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

October 2009

The airport handled 527,412 pasengers in the month, down 1.6% on October 2008. Atms were down 4.0% so average loads may have been marginally improved over last year - always difficult to assess accurately without having the number of seats available.

12-month rolling total was 5,635,033, down 10.9% on a year ago.

The monthly percentage decrease in passenger numbers is bottoming out as will be expected as the comparisons will be with the lower figures that began at Bristol last winter.

The CO EWR route was again encouraging. 8,336 passengers used the service, down 4% on October 2008. However, in October 2009 there was no Wednesday service unlike October 2008 which was daily.

October 2009 therefore saw an average load of 154, 88% load factor, compared with October 2008 where the average load was 139, 79.5% load factor.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Bristol seems to be fairing much better than many other airports around the country and significantly better than local rival Cardiff.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

November 2009

The airport handled 338,389 pasengers in the month, down 4.8% on November 2008. Atms were down 7.3 % which explains the drop in passenger figures despite Ryanair having two additional based aircraft over last winter.

In fact, Ryanair don't use all four aircraft all of the time and easyJet has reduced frequencies on many routes even on the already reduced frequencies of November 2008. easyJet has also axed a number of routes - Venice, Valencia and Lisbon all flew last winter.

12-month rolling total was 5,621,019, down 10.5% on a year ago.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

All in all still a good healthy figure in comparison with many other regional airports. Bristol Airport seems to have been one of the best at cushioning the blow of recession. Whether that's down to local employment retention I don't know.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Bristol and its region is a vibrant business zone, economically very successful, and also has an above average number of well-off leisure travellers living within its core catchment.

Furthermore, it benefits from the fact that neighbouring Cardiff Airport has been run down in recent years and people from South Wales now see Bristol as their airport of first resort for many routes.

Although both Bristol and Cardiff can survive independently on the core business routes and to the sun destinations, Bristol's larger and generally better off catchment means secondary routes also usually do much better, and whilst tertiary routes need help from South Wales and elsewhere, such routes from CWL would need even more help which seems to be the reason why airlines pick BRS over CWL when setting up niche routes.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

December 2009

CAA provisional stats for December 2009 now published.

BRS handled 348,512 passengers in December, down 2.1% on December 2008. Atms for the month were down 6.1% compared with the previous December.

The rolling 12-month figure which represents the calendar year of 2009 saw 5,615,336 passengers handled, down 9.8% on a year ago. Atms for the year were down 10.4%.

As stated in previous posts in this thread BRS was affected by the recession later than many airports and its final figures of a downturn of 9.8% in passenger numbers is not at all bad, given the overall state of the market.

It's slightly better than I thought would be the case back in the early spring when I was looking to a reduction in passenger numbers of between 10% and 12% for the calendar year of 2009.

Taking 2010's programme as currently announced I am looking to an increase of 5% or possibly slightly more in passenger numbers for the coming year.

The airport CEO says he thinks nearly all the lost passengers of 2009 will be regained in 2010 but I think he knows he is being a touch over-optimistic.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Perhaps he's being over-optimistic but he has more reasons to be over optimistic that many of his nearest competitors. Like you say, for reasons already mentioned in this thread, Bristol is likely to fair much better this year and you never know, the CEO might just be right.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

January 2010

CAA stats show 323,496 passengers handled at Bristol in January 2010, down just 0.3% on January 2009.
Atms were down 2.4% so the loads seem to be holding.

BRS is the second best percentage performer of all UK airports of any size so far reported - in fact most of the main airports' figures are already in. Liverpool was the best with a 7.9% rise but their atms were up over 11% on the previous January.

Bristol's rolling 12-month figure is 5,614,258, down 9.1% on a year ago.

It looks as though the theory about Bristol being one of the last airports to be affected by the recession and one of the first to recover is on track.