Route Development & Rumours

[IanFarquharson]

Andy

All extra capacity in Summer 16 over Summer 15 - assumed 80% load factors

Ian

 

[Seasider]

Andy

All extra capacity in Summer 16 over Summer 15 - assumed 80% load factors

Ian

So you expect 80% load factor for the 4 operators on Madrid?

I think that they will do well to achieve 60% loads on the new services.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi Ian, so if you're predicting 11,400,000 for next year 2016, that would be 1,200,000,00 for next year, at that rate per year, we would be looking at 2020 at least 16,200,000, then by 2025 at least 22,200,000, is this correct and do I have my figures correct at all...andyc

 

[Brummiegem]

Seasider,whilst to a point I agree with your sentiment,I also thought the same when it transpired that we had 4 carriers to BCN.
I know you shouldn't compare 2 different destinations like this,but in October we had 85% loads,averaging 165 pax.per flight.Anything close to that would be great,and proving Ian right.
Worth noting that it is the same carriers with the exception of Vueling to BCN and Iberia Express to MAD.Also worth noting that those 2 also codeshare.MON,RYR and NAX being the other 3.So there are some similarities between the 2 and should not be written off just yet.
However long term I cannot see all 4 lasting,but stranger things have happened.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I'll be very surprised if Monarch last more than one season to Madrid. What I hope is that we don't end up with nothing and the route going unserved for another few years. Four is too many, I reckon two would be about right.

I'm really hoping Lisbon does well for Monarch though and sticks around :good:

 

[User001]

I do see monarch struggling on Madrid.

They are the last to the table in terms of booking window, and, the frequency matching of the other operators will not help.

I do not believe for one second that there is a dire need for 4 daily flights on MAD-BHX on Sunday's for example.

I'm not sure what has possessed Monarch on some of their route choices. BHX-MAD and LGW/MAN-LIS are 3 routes I do not see lasting that long at all.

 

[Brummiegem]

I'll second that Ray.
I have a soft spot for MON,plus they have stuck by BHX.
Problem is,if the route does do well,then that may well encourage another carrier.TAP or one of it's affiliates would be great.However same question would then arise.
2 carriers to Lisbon could be OK,if another joins then that definitely becomes a problem.
I fear that MON may well be the one that loses out.However BHXs' loss may be a gain for another airport.LBA springs to mind here,but we'll see what happens.

 

[richard winterbourn]

Monarch and Lisbon. One thing that i think is very much in Monarch's favour is the fact that they are the based airline in BHX that people can trust, have faith in and which offers a high standard of service.

I travel to South America at least twice a year* and if they do get into Terminal 1 at Portella i would certainly consider them for Rio. Anyone going to South America will cut up to 2 hours off their journey if they start the main journey from Lisbon.

There must be a market from BHX to Lisbon both in business and leisure terms for, as regards the latter, it is one of the most beautiful cities in Europe.

Don't write Monarch off just yet.

* When travelling via Amsterdam i always ask how many pax are transitting there for Rio and often there as as many as six - and that's just to Rio. Add on Sao Paulo and Brasilia and it could be a sizeable number. And then there are the African connections.

Finally, i still can't understand why TAP have not dipped their toe in the water...

 

[Jon Dempsey]

I would have thought Lisbon would merit more services and the Madrid route is in a race to the bottom.
Both are capital cities, both have excellent connections to South America and both are beautiful cities full of nightlife, but Lisbon has the added pull of the beaches at Estoril and Cascais.

 

[Ray Finkle]

On a personal level the addition of Lisbon came a little too late for me. It's somewhere I really want to visit but all my holidays for 2016 are now booked, if only it had been announced a month earlier. I just hope it's still available in 2017.

In other news various groups throughout the Punjab are after a direct Amritsar - Birmingham flight.

Dr. Sukhdev Singh, President INTACh Punjab requested airlines to start direct flights to Birmingham.

AVM also demanded the resumption of Amritsar London Toronto and Amritsar Birmingham direct flights which were rerouted via Delhi in 2010. The Amritsar London Toronto flight was the most successful in the history of Air India.

http://punjabnewsexpress.com/regional/n ... 6I.twitter

 

[Brum X]

Goodafternoon everyone, i hope you all had a nice christmas and you are all looking forward to hitting the gym in the next few days. Ive already been twice since boxing day :dance: :dance:


Anyway enough of that and im liking Ray hitting the like buttons once again, it wasnt quite the same for the last few weeks, something was missing. :sad:

Re: Direct Amritsar flights.

Maybe something for Air India to look at maybe serving Amritsar x 4 week direct and Delhi x 3 week direct and then we still keep our daily India flights. SIMPLES

 

[Ray Finkle]

Anyway enough of that and im liking Ray hitting the like buttons once again, it wasnt quite the same for the last few weeks, something was missing. :sad:

It just didn't feel right :sad:

As for Amritsar.

I'm not sure if just a BHX-ATQ flight would work for AI, it's a low yielding route and having Delhi attracts the business pax and connections to other destinations. There is also cargo to consider which I believe is mainly to DEL. Maybe they could reverse the route 2/3 times per week so the Amritsar - Birmingham leg is direct? I wonder if there is scope to add a couple more ATQ flights and continue them on to Mumbai or Ahmedabad?

As the article suggests Scoot are starting Singapore - Amritsar next May. I doubt it would happen but SIN-ATQ-BHX could be interesting and the economics of a 787 may make it viable.

Another option could be Norwegian. India has already been suggested as a destination with BHX mentioned, although they only mentioned Delhi, Mumbai and Calcutta. One or two weekly low cost flights to Amritsar on a 787 could be a nice route for them.

 

[nwoody2001]

NOW!!!!!!!!

I must stress that I know nothing and this is purely my interpretation of something so don't shoot the messenger if it turns out to be false...

But has anyone noticed that the Bhx website has been updated, with a roadsign of Rodeo Drive??? For those of you not up to speed with your geography, Rodeo Drive is the USA but, more importantly in LA!!!! This image could purely be promoting Bhx links with the states, but seems a little odd???

Anyone heard anything???

 

[richard winterbourn]

Good spot nwoody2001. Whether this trail leads to a significant announcement i don't know. But one thing i am certain of is that the image is of North Rodeo Drive in Beverly HIlls. Although the writing in the top portion of the sign is not clear in the BHX image, open up Google images and you will see that it is clearly identified as Via Rodeo. So without question the sign is in Beverly Hills a city in Los Angeles County, California.

But as to what this all means...... who knows?

 

[DaveBham]

They might be selling the idea of connections to the west coast via JFK/EWR?

 

[Ray Finkle]

They might be selling the idea of connections to the west coast via JFK/EWR?

That was my first thought too.

 

[Ray Finkle]

NOW!!!!!!!!

I must stress that I know nothing and this is purely my interpretation of something so don't shoot the messenger if it turns out to be false...

But has anyone noticed that the Bhx website has been updated, with a roadsign of Rodeo Drive??? For those of you not up to speed with your geography, Rodeo Drive is the USA but, more importantly in LA!!!! This image could purely be promoting Bhx links with the states, but seems a little odd???

Anyone heard anything???

It looks as though Los Angeles is the featured destination at the moment. It's on the BHX travel site although the 'book now' tab doesn't seem to be working.

http://birmingham.airportdirecttravel.co.uk/

 

[richard winterbourn]

Thirty routes and 400+ flights a week with Flybe and an increased programme of flights from Ryanair.....

Can Terminal Two at BHX cope with this increased volume of traffic, and if it can, how much more can it take?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Without going through the timetable I reckon we should be up to 14 based Flybe now?

Can't answer about how T2 will cope as I've not been through for a number of years but I guess it will be tight at busy times?

 

[nwoody2001]

well both Flybe and Ryanair are providing circa 1.75 - 2.0 million seats each, and assuming that the old T2 doesn't serve any other airlines, that's up to circa 4,000,000 pax is has to be able to accommodate!

It has largely been accepted that the current terminal (T1-T2) have capacity of upto 15m pax a year, which breaks down to circa 1.25 million pax a month.

Looking at last years summer months, in a crude fashion, you can see the sort of level we reached.

Summer 2015
May = 905,000 pax (72% capacity)
June = 989,000 pax (79% capacity)
July = 1,072,000 pax (86% capacity)
Aug = 1,138,000 pax (91% capacity)
Sept = 1,042,000 pax (83% capacity)
Oct = 920,000 pax (74% capacity)

In an equally crude fashion, assuming we are expecting circa 8-10% growth next year, we can suggest we see the following passenger figures assuming 8% growth:

Summer 2016
May = 977,000 pax (78% capacity)
June = 1,068,000 pax (85% capacity)
July = 1,158,000 pax (93% capacity)
Aug = 1,229,000 pax (98% capacity)
Sept = 1,125,000 pax (90% capacity)
Oct = 994,000 pax (79% capacity)

it shows the pressing need for the airport to identify how it intends to accommodate such exceptional growth, expecially if we want the current trend to continue!!!