Passenger number prediction thread 2017.

[Ray Finkle]

Well done to nwoody for winning 2016

As requested here is 2017.

The same as last year, either list your predictions here or pm me if you would prefer. Final guesses to be in by the end of January 2017, that gives everybody time to see how 2016 finishes up. Between now and then adjustments can be made as, good or bad, we are likely to get more news.

Happy guessing.

 

[IanFarquharson]

12,456,789 for me

Ian

 

[Paulsstrange]

12795000 for me

Cheers
Paul

 

[ronnoc1k8]

12,384,907.

 

[IanFarquharson]

If it help BHX are predicting 13m in 2017

 

[paul]

12,675,899

 

[Jon Dempsey]

12,950,000

 

[Butty]

Confident and some big announcements are due, plus heavy fog in Feb closes LHR, so going with 13,007,498.

 

[nwoody2001]

I'm actually going to wait until the end of the year with all the announcement season out the way ....

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there butty, any idea, when and who these big announcements will be at all...Andyc

 

[Butty]

Andy, sorry but my wording was misleading. The ambition of my prediction is based on growth we already know, plus, I hope, some more announcements. I just feel that a tremendous 2016 and a steady growth in 2017, plus the continued confidence in the city and region, coupled with at last a few senior politicians who actually believe in the region etc that we will continue to develop as a major airport. The Heathrow v gatwick decision will not be made in parliament until early 2018, HS2 is in the bag and I would not be surprised if BHX gets the nod in early 2018 also. So 2017 could see 12 or 13% growth.

Then again things could go very badly in the US elections and who knows what the state of the world's economy will be like by the start of next year. Forget the woes of Brexit , Trumpit is off the scale.

 

[Ray Finkle]

As it's that time of year again we can think about those predictions for 2017.

Similar to last year people can make their guesses with the final number due at the end of Jan, once we have the official total for 2016.

For a list of what is confirmed for 2017 please click HERE.

Happy guessing

 

[flymetothemoon]

I'm going with 12,645,000

 

[Butty]

I am sticking with my 13,007,498. Ever the optimist. Just see 2017 being the City's year. Happy to be proven wrong and a higher figure be achieved.

 

[Barry Beeth]

A rather conservative 12,428,000 from me...

 

[Ray Finkle]

Butty 13,007,498

Jon Dempsey 12,950,000

Paul S 12,795,000

paul 12,675,899

flymetoothemoon 12,645,000

Ian F 12,456,789

Barry Beeth 12,428,000

ronnoc1k8 12,384,907

 

[hammerb32]

13,110,011 driven by a wet and windy summer

 

[58terminus]

13,110,011 driven by a wet and windy summer

If wet and windy summers had that much effect we would be speculating in the 20 millions

 

[nwoody2001]

I'm going to stick my head out there too and suggest we'll break the 13m mark ...

We'll likely have grown some 1.4m in 2016 with less than 30 new routes (but major capacity growth) ...whilst we're loosing 2 major routes (JFK/BFS) I think a significant amount will stay with BHX..., and I'm still convinced there may be more to come!

I'm going for 13,125,000 for 2017 ...go bold or go home!

 

[Ray Finkle]

...go bold or go home!

As it stands I think I'd go for around 12.9 million. I do, however, have a sneaky suspicion that there may well be a bit more to come, so I'm going for a very bold 13.2 million.