Wow! Didn't see that coming especially during the current climate!
It shows what might be happening behind the scenes at any airport without rumours being discussed openly on public platforms. In fact, two sources told me within one day the week before last that Jet2's 10th UK base would be announced within the next week or two and that it would be a 3 or 3/4 aircraft base (the sources varied) at BRS. From cryptic comments made by at least one other F4A poster on this and other forums I suspected that person was aware as well. I was asked to say nothing and the most I could do was make a 'it's always darkest before the dawn' comment in a BRS forum post a week or so ago.
I had actually prepared a post last week musing on the various scenarios if an airline base such as Jet2 or Wizz turned up at BRS next summer but realised that the post could easily be read as an expectation of such an event so I didn't submit it, although with hindsight it might have made for an interesting discussion and by using Wizz as well as Jet2 I could have disguised the real reason for the post.
In fact, I was very surprised that people didn't begin to hint openly that Jet2 was on its way to BRS, as I assumed that it was known by a number of people outside the airline and airport.
Jet2 will effect them to what extent is unknown. Jet2 are an aggressive airline I expect that more based aircraft will be added before April and hope they squeeze all the airlines at Bristol so much that they add flights at Cardiff and Exeter instead! Fingers crossed!
Ironically, had the pandemic not intervened BRS might not have been able to accommodate a Jet2 base at all. In February this year the airport's rolling 12-month passenger total was nearly 9.2 million, well on the way to the projected 10 mppa at the end of next year which is the airport's current passenger cap.
Now the entire aviation scene has altered and no-one had accurately predict what will happen in 2021 let alone after that.
On the one hand having three major low cost airlines (four with the Wizz operation to Katowice) in substantial numbers plus a significant TUI base might be too much for the available passenger numbers in 2021 if flying is severely curtailed by government action or even by sentiment. Alternatively, if flying is eased (definitely no pun intended) and there is a strong demand from punters then Jet2 would be in place to help with the numbers wanting to fly via BRS.
It has to be remembered that easyJet probably won't be able to increase its previous 18-aircraft base at BRS, or even maintain it at that number, because of its fleet reductions and Thomas Cook was never fully replaced. Others have commented on the Greek emphasis of Jet2's programme, an area in which Thomas Cook was strong.
There might be some displacement to CWL and/or EXT with Ryanair seemingly the most likely in my view, were it to happen. However, I doubt that Ryanair would want to give up too much on a base like BRS. TUI too might feel the need for a slight reorganisation in the south-west sector of Britain. The next few weeks or months ought to give us a clue to the reaction of these other airlines.
BRS has said for a long time that it prefers to grow using existing airline partners so a substantial new airline presence is an alteration to that policy, if indeed it was as strong as a policy. Comments have been made in the past here and elsewhere that to reach 12 mppa would ideally involve the presence of another significant airline player, not least because easyJet, welcome and invaluable as it undoubtedly is, is already responsible for over half of BRS's passenger numbers.
The next few years will see airports trying to regain their pre-pandemic positions, not least with passenger numbers, and then kick on from that. There are at least four top 20 UK airports, CWL being one, that have yet to regain their pre-'noughties' recession passenger numbers, and EXT only did so last year. In the post-pandemic scramble to return to previous sunlit uplands (to plagiarise one of Britain's greatest men) airports will need all the ammunition they can find.
BRS has one obvious and potentially insurmountable problem. If it loses its planning application appeal it will be stuck with a 10 mppa passenger cap for many years to come, perhaps for ever. In the meantime it now has a breathing space and can use other airlines to help existing ones rebuild its castle. The real crunch would come when it's back to the 9 mppa level and is then facing a brick wall just ahead because it has lost its appeal.
What the deal with Jet2 is we don't know. The BRS owners are already prepared to speculate to the future with the multi-million pound public transport interchange being brought forward and money being spent on attempts to compulsorily purchase land and properties in order to dual the A38 in the vicinity of the airport. They have doubtless been advised by their senior airport management that Jet2 would be an overall positive move, even in these uncertain times. All this has to be viewed in the context of a previously very profitable airport, so it can be safely assumed that the owners and senior management believe their actions, including the arrival of Jet2, will ensure the required level of profitability in the future.
One final comment on the airport appeal. The main argument will undoubtedly centre on environmental issues. Already opponents are saying that because the pandemic has decimated passenger numbers an expansion is not necessary. If the airport can show that it has the wherewithal to grow itself back to pre-pandemic levels and substantially beyond that the presence of Jet2 would add weight to that contention. There are calls to move the extra BRS flights that expansion would allow to other airports, CWL being particularly keen to benefit. Environmentally, extra flights would emit the same amount of gases into the atmosphere whether the aircraft flew from BRS, CWL, EXT or any other airport in the country.
Finally, finally. Just come across this interview with Jet2 CEO Steve Heapy in which he touches at some length on the BRS base. It was not something they did at the last minute. It's been under consideration for a while and they are aware of the competition they face at the airport.