CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[mullion]

I thought United was a B763 over winter anyway

 

[Scottie Dog]

SUMMER 2019 - Planned Movements are currently +3.3% and Seats 5.9% compared with S18 season

 

[Scottie Dog]

WINTER 2019 - Planned Movements are currently +11.7% and Seats +12.7% compared with W18 season actual.

The IATA Slot return deadline for W19 was 15th July. The EU Slot Return deadline and start of historic calculation is 31st August therefore more cancellations can be expected.

CANCELLATIONS
Alitalia (AZ) – Has cancelled all proposed double daily slots for LIN (Milan Linate).
Anisec (VK) – Has cancelled slots for its proposed five per week SZG with A320 eff.19Dec.
Austrian a/l (OS) – Slots were held to increase from five per week to daily for W19. Now remains the same as W18 at five per week and four during January.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Updated CAA stats for May are now available on their website. Guess that means another job for me this weekend along with other items of news that I have for other threads on here.
I'd better get an extra bottle of Malbec in to placate the lady

 

[Scottie Dog]

Looking at the amended CAA stats the only changes for Manchester are for the missing 3 domestic destinations.

Rather than redoing the spreadsheet the following is the detail:

Belfast City - 23,820 -7.538%
Belfast International - 40,665 + 48.858%
Exeter - 11,295 + 8.1172%

Total 75,780 compared with 2018 when the 3 airports accounted for 63,527 passengers.

 

[Scottie Dog]

June's stats are now out from the CAA and I'll be working on them tomorrow. I've already noticed some interesting figures and I'll share them with you during the day.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Manchester Statistics - June 2019

Introduction
Back in September 2015 I decided that I should start to correlate statistics for Manchester and use 2005 as a reference point for historical data. My file now consists of 14 years of monthly figures and 486 destinations that have been served from Manchester over that period.

Destinations that are either new (no passengers since my records started in January 2005), or have not been served for a number of years - if the latter then the month and year of the last service is shown.

Poitiers was a new destinations served in June 2019.

Million passenger routes (Rolling annual figures)
Amsterdam - 1,049,656 passengers

The following domestic statistics are missing from the CAA report for June.
Neither Belfast International nor Exeter have reported for this month
In June 2018 these accounted for 36,667 passengers.

Moving monthly and annual figures - based on CAA statistics/MAG statistics
Monthly passengers - 2,966,156 +3.70%
Annual Total - 8,001,639 +5.69%
Moving Annual Total - 29,088,586 +3.85%

Monthly Movements - 19,380 +1.53%
Annual Movements - 54,546 +1.83%
Moving Annual Movements - 202,662 +0.44%

Top 25 destinations - by passenger numbers
View attachment 14072

Top destinations with highest percentage increase.
View attachment 14073

Figures for the European and long haul destinations that I consider to be the main points for our connecting traffic.
View attachment 14074

Comparison of top 25 destinations - June 2009 versus June 2019
View attachment 14078

Major changes to Domestic traffic
View attachment 14076

CAA statistics for June are provisional.

As a separate item I have now started to analyze June's statistics to obtain load factors on certain routes
View attachment 14077

Calculations are based of FlightRadar24 for days of flight operation, Planespotter.net for Seat Plans and CAA data for monthly figures. All figures are purely my own and do not necessarily reflect true loads.
NB - Ethiopian and Singapore Airlines flights are shared with another city. The split of available seats that Manchester has is unknown.

Edited to show correct comparison for June 2009 and 2019

 

[User1007]

The 2009 vs 2019 table has numbers for June 2018 rather than 2009?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Oooh ****

I'm on mobile data only at the moment in the evenings but I'll get that corrected tomorrow. Many thanks for being more observant than me.

I've now correct the error - my thanks again to user1007 for pointing out the error of my ways - 1st August 1349hrs

 

[Scottie Dog]

Hot of the press - July stats.

View attachment 14175

 

[David_itl]

Don't think 30 million passengers will be on for this year. 29.9 million or thereabouts. Or put another way, nearly 3 times as many passengers as 30 years ago. In fact. looking at the 1989 comparison I have seen the CAA compare that year to 1984. Remarkable to think that the passenger throughput we get in 2 months is more than the number of passengers handled in 1984!

 

[Scottie Dog]

More likely to be around 29,620,000 If the growth rates stays the same.

 

[mullion]

The first time passengers have gone over 100,000 per day in July and only 3rd time ever any month (Aug 17, 18)

 

[Scottie Dog]

How the new figures reflect the potential year-end numbers - assuming a 5pc future growth month on month:

View attachment 14178

 

[Land23R]

The airport's financial year is to 31 March. With a bit of a tailwind MAN might just nudge 30m pax by then. I seem to recall one of the executives predicted they would hit 30m 'this year'. Perhaps it was the financial year he had in mind.

 

[Scottie Dog]

I'll do some projections later this evening.....

 

[Scottie Dog]

I did say that I would look at my figures and try to project when the 30m figure, in a rolling-year, might be breached.

The following is based on assuming a 5pc month on month growth:

March 2019-February 2020 - 29,807,561
April 2019-March 2020 - 29,910,702
May 2019-April 2020 - 30,029,891

Allowing for the fact that last month was under 5pc it's a very hard call to make.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Back in Post #827 - June statistics I said that figures for Belfast International, Exeter (and LOndon City that I had omitted) were missing from the first reports.

The final report is now out and the missings numbers were 37,108 against 36,667

 

[David_itl]

Just the 115,000 passengers expected on 23rd August and 430,000 overall for the Bank Holiday weekend

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...siest-day-history-manchester-airport-16790831

 

[IanFarquharson]

July