Manchester: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[Scottie Dog]

With Europe being so large I thought it would be better to break it into areas.

Firstly Scandinavia

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[TheLocalYokel]

Does MAN not have services to Katowice or Poznan?

 

[Scottie Dog]

We now come to Portugal, Spain and other countries that border the Mediterranean

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[Scottie Dog]

The rest of Europe (and anywhere else I might have missed!!)

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....and that's it for tonight.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Does MAN not have services to Katowice or Poznan?

Katowice was served from November 2011 to March 2014 and Poznan has only had passengers in January 2015 when 167 were recorded.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Katowice was served from November 2011 to March 2014 and Poznan has only had passengers in January 2015 when 167 were recorded.

Thank you. That's very surprising given that some smaller UK airports have scheduled services to those airports.

 

[Jamman]

Nice to see it all broken down like that thanks for the work, makes me laugh that some of the summer months on the bucket and spade routes looks like we are sending a small army into some airports!

 

[BlueManc]

Thank you. That's very surprising given that some smaller UK airports have scheduled services to those airports.

Over the years, the Polish market settled down to mainly Liverpool services, served by Ryanair and Wizz. You can add Lublin and Szczecin to your list. Compared to years ago, when we just had the indecisive LOT Warsaw service, Manchester has a much healthier network, but Poznan is surprisingly yet to be served.

 

[Scottie Dog]

All MAG airports report strong November figures

MAG, the operator of Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands airports, saw continuing growth in November as new long-haul routes saw its airports serve 7.7 per cent more passengers than in the same month last year.
All three of MAG’s airports grew significantly year on year, with London Stansted growing 8.7 per cent to welcome 1.98 million passengers, Manchester up 7.1 per cent to 1.85 million passengers and East Midlands Airport growing 4.7 per cent to welcome 232,000 passengers in November.
The growth – which mirrors that of Heathrow - means that Manchester Airport has now seen two successive months of strong growth in passenger numbers, as the successful ‘backfill’ of slots previously operated by Monarch leads to further growth across the winter season.
This growth was further bolstered by the successful introduction of a new long-haul link from Manchester to Mumbai with Jet Airways.
Overall, long-haul traffic to the Caribbean, Middle East and Asia was up 8.8 per cent year on year as Manchester continues to play a major role in connecting the north to global economic hubs.

 

[Scottie Dog]

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[Scottie Dog]

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[Scottie Dog]

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[Silvercity]

Thank you. That's very surprising given that some smaller UK airports have scheduled services to those airports.

There are quite a few Eastern European service from Liverpool by Wizz and Blue Air, they provide service for the Northwest market pretty well. Poznan is available from Liverpool with Ryanair.

 

[Land23R]

November stats:
Although domestic activity is much less than scheduled international, one of the things that struck me is that there was an increase of 2% on domestic passengers on a 12.5% reduction on ATMs.

I would imagine this reflects a higher proportion of larger a/c with 150-189 seats than the smaller a/c used by the likes of flybe, although it would be nice to think it also means higher load factors on domestic services.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The missing October statistics for Belfast City and Inverness are now available:

Belfast City - 23801 -3.52%
Inverness - 5,068 -2.12%

 

[Scottie Dog]

I had a bit of time today to play with figures and, following on from Ian's post on the Birmingham thread, I have produced a monthly analysis of Manchester passenger figures from January 2005 through to November 2018 and then projected numbers through until December 2021. I have used a conservative increase of 5pc for the projections.

Any thoughts and suggestions will be gratefully appreciated.

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[IanFarquharson]

Nice one Scottie
5% maybe a little ambitious but I like your optimism
Ian

 

[David_itl]

There's me thinking 5% is overly cautious! Just a selection of airlines here...

Jet2: https://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2031970 Up 600,000 seats for summer 2019. Up 27%
United: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/trips-and-breaks/theres-going-more-seats-available-15558907 40% increase from May to September Up 22,000 seats
Cathay Pacific : up 10,000 seats from June to August
Virgin: https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/virgin-atlantic-reveals-major-manchester-expansion-14338 20% increase in summer capacity

Then we've got easyJet and the expected big boost in based aircraft and Ryanair wanting to ramp up as well.


Also got a 7% increase over the festive period to 1.56 million passengers http://www.knutsfordtimes.com/knuts...ly-through-manchester-airport-this-christmas/

 

[Scottie Dog]

That's interesting David as I'd selected 7pc for December as an off-the-cuff value and yet the Knutsford cutting you link to strangely quotes the same value.

Obviously the situation with regards to flybe may have to be taken into account. I'll produce an update for all of my spreadsheets in early January once the CAA has published their November statistics and the airport has released their December figures.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

MAN's upward trajectory will also be more muted if MAG is unable to accommodate Ryanair's desire to expand within congested T3. Unless a solution is found, Ryanair could be artificially 'capped' by physical constraints within the terminal for a number of seasons going forward. Hopefully, MAG will be aware of this issue and looking at options to resolve it behind the scenes. Ryanair's expansion ambitions at MAN are a big deal.