Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Aceshigh]

Ģhttp://www.routesonline.com/news/29...&utm_medium=social_media&utm_campaign=the-hub

Interesting article. I cannot see IAG /BA starting "another" base when you read this.

Incidentally if DUB is 5th where is Manchester in the league table ?

 

[Land23R]

What actually started this rumour that BA were likely to introduce long haul routes to the US from MAN with B772s? Was it just idle speculation because of the perceived inadequacy of the AA services, or was there something more substantial?

Just being devil's advocate for a moment, is it not conceivable that BA, rightly or wrongly, will be content with getting some transfer pax via LHR and DUB, and that AA could drop ORD, PHL or even both. Yesterday I was shown a photo taken on board the PHL flight from MAN back in February showing row upon row of empty seats in economy and he said the flight wasn't even a quarter full. Yes, I appreciate it was February and there may have been plenty of freight and some business class pax on that particular flight, and that it's alleged there are thousands of empty economy seats on TATL flights from LHR each day, but it was a small indication of how volatile loads on the PHL can be. And to be fair, the seat plans did show some decent loads over the summer and prior to Christmas.

The expansion by TCX and VS with new direct services to the US from MAN has surely had a significant impact on the market both in terms of new additional pax and less reliance on hubs like ORD and PHL.

I just wondered if there is any hard evidence that BA want to compete against TCX and VS to the US from MAN. A genuine question.

 

[thunderchild]

What actually started this rumour that BA were likely to introduce long haul routes to the US from MAN with B772s? Was it just idle speculation because of the perceived inadequacy of the AA services, or was there something more substantial?

Someone posted on another forum that the two 789’s BA sent up to MAN before Thanksgiving were for a big press announcement and that BA were taking over JFK and ORD from AA. In reality the jets were just sent up for parking over the holiday period. From what I can gather this is where it all started.

 

[Dobbo]

It's been around long before the B789's came to MAN.

 

[David_itl]

Bear in mind that 25 777s are to be done in a LGW config and theres no prospect of them being used by Aer Lingus or Iberia, no reason for them to go to LHR and that they have 14 or so at LGW with room to add a fee more to counter any expansion there. Throw in them having an uncompetitive offering both in terms of one-stop over a hub and the performance issues AA have had on their non-stop routes then its not unreasonabke supposition for a few to come to MAN with AA/BA to operate in a manner not dissimilar to DL/VS here

 

[Aceshigh]

In struggling to understand why they wouldn't just feed Dublin ?

 

[Aceshigh]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/chinese-investment-manchester-property-powers/

Hopefully Air China are taking note !

 

[Dobbo]

In struggling to understand why they wouldn't just feed Dublin ?

A number of reasons:

1 - capacity of EI and DUB (lack thereof).
2 - competition from VS/DL and TCX who are taking large volumes of passengers away from IAG with direct routes
3 - future competition from Norwegian compounding the above.
4 - USPC at MAN allowing a second TATL hub operation to have a competetive advantage.
5 - Middle and far eastern carriers pretty much killing BA's eastbound business from MAN. Do not make the same mistake twice.
6 - MAN is a bloody big market in its own right!

 

[Coathanger16]

In struggling to understand why they wouldn't just feed Dublin ?

Agree with everything Dobbo said above.

Routing everything through Dublin is of course one option. However seeming as pretty much every American destination that Aer Lingus serves from Dublin is also available non-stop from Manchester, how many people would choose to route through Dublin over a non-stop flight from Manchester? Yes Dublin has USPBC, but so will Manchester in a few years time.

I think IAG's plan is for Dublin to be more of a hub for UK regional airports that don't have direct/non-stop flights to the USA. Besides Manchester, Aer Lingus serves 12 other UK airports (7 of which don't have any TATL flights), plus airports across Europe. That's the market their targeting - not passengers from Manchester's catchment area.

 

[Land23R]

Agree with everything Dobbo said above.

I think IAG's plan is for Dublin to be more of a hub for UK regional airports that don't have direct/non-stop flights to the USA. Besides Manchester, Aer Lingus serves 12 other UK airports (7 of which don't have any TATL flights), plus airports across Europe. That's the market their targeting - not passengers from Manchester's catchment area.

You mat well be right, but isn't MAN also targeting pax from a wider catchment area that would include passengers from e.g Leeds and Merseyside who might use LBA and LPL to fly via DUB? And won't certain airlines at MAN be keen to maximise potential transfer traffic from some Scottish airports and maybe Southampton to the US onto their direct flights through code share agreements to boost viability of those US services?

 

[Dobbo]

Yes, that is the mix of surface acess catchment (cities like Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham, Newcastle, East Midlands) which will benefit from HS2/3 and the TP tunnel with remote "Hub" type feed from other airports in the UK and overseas.

MAN targets both, but without a based airline with its own feed (e.g. EI/DUB or BA/LHR) it is difficult to get the remote feed right.

 

[Coathanger16]

You mat well be right, but isn't MAN also targeting pax from a wider catchment area that would include passengers from e.g Leeds and Merseyside who might use LBA and LPL to fly via DUB? And won't certain airlines at MAN be keen to maximise potential transfer traffic from some Scottish airports and maybe Southampton to the US onto their direct flights through code share agreements to boost viability of those US services?

When you're looking to fly from Europe to America, there are any number of routes that you could take (both direct and one-stop). The more hubs/airports that IAG operate from, the higher the proportion of those passengers they will get. When BA started their LGW - JFK route, they weren't trying to lure passengers away from LHR - they were targeting a different customer base. The same can be said of Aer Lingus/Dublin. I don't personally know, but would IAG place more of an emphasis on getting passengers to fly with Aer Lingus over American Airlines? The latter operates from Manchester and I find it unlikely that IAG would try to lure customers away from AA. As I said at the start, the TATL market is highly competitive. By opening another hub at Dublin, it puts IAG in a better place to compete. In the future, if they were to open a TATL hub at Manchester, that would further help them compete. It wouldn't mean by operating a hub at Manchester that they were trying to lure passengers away from Dublin.

 

[Aceshigh]

http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/norwegian-details-plans-2017


I still don't understand why they don't mention Manchester when it's nailed on ?

 

[Land23R]

At least they don't just specify Gatwick and Edinburgh and refer to a series of transatlantic routes from UK cities.
Cities could mean 2 or it could imply more.

 

[Dobbo]

Well, if Norwegian hesitate at MAN and that gives TCX and VS an extra year's head start on them, that would be fine by me. I worry about AA and UA. AA we think will be out of MAN over the next 2/3 years (with the exception of PHL) but I am not sure where that leaves UA. Unless they can grow the EWR route so that it can fit either a B763 or larger aircraft, I don't see where they can go with it when the B752 retires.

 

[IanFarquharson]

NAX wont base any aircraft at MAN in S17
But may have 12 weekly flights to US with away based 737MAX

 

[Aceshigh]

Re NAX many thanks for the update. In some respects this is good news as ramp capacity is fast becoming a premium overnight and until late moring.

Anything that continues to meet demand but outside of that core time is to be welcomed.

 

[Jerry]

I don't know if anyone has posted this but Titan Airways will be doing a weekly charter to Zadar in Croatia on behalf of Neilson who are a UK based activity holiday firm in the summer. The flight will be on a 130 seater 737 300QC. Also there will be a Stansted flight.
www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/52175-titan-airways-secures-neilson-summer-charter-contract

 

[Land23R]

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/news/air

2 of the main stories (pictured)relate to MAN. One of the others is a bit frustrating as it's flybe's code share agreement with VS for flights from LHR - SFO and BOS routes are specifically mentioned!

I guess this could have gone in the General thread but it seemed relevant to route development.

 

[Aceshigh]

A poster on dried fruit has just reported Qatar going 3 daily from November.