Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Dobbo]

Interesting but expected news re PER-LHR non-stop on QF.

I think MAN is one of QF's top European revenue generators on the EK codeshare? Do we know if that has been maintained? Not suggesting we might see QF metal, but interested to keep tabs on a pretty busy route.

 

[ethanegcc]

If Wizz had gone to EMA, MAN may be more possible, with the MAG operation, however I would love Wizz but they have chosen to serve DSA and LPL (as mentioned) on either side of MAN. Poland/Romania are massive underserved markets with no flight to OTP! It is quite astonishing to believe that we have flights to SFO, LAX, PEK, PVG (soon) but not 2-3hrs away to Bucharest and the main airport of Warsaw.

 

[David_itl]

Seems plausible - but what onward connections do they have?

May not be all down to passenger flow, even if the number of Kuwaiti visitors to Manchester has grown from 3,000 a year to 9,500 a year over a 5 year period. Looking at the Visit Britain numbers, some 29,000 people visited England (excluding London) and Scotland

There may be a case for saying passengers could be the "gravy" on the route as it's the cargo that may be of more use e.g. with Kuwait ordering Eurofighers, they may be able to transport spares/equipment for them. Additionally The DTI has this for exports to Kuwait https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exporting-to-kuwait/exporting-to-kuwait Just got to see what could be carried on aircraft there. Also potential for the regularish cargo flights that operate between Kuwait and Newcastle could see that cargo being transported out of MAN instead?

 

[ethanegcc]

I am really looking forward to possibly seeing another ME airline at MAN. I wonder how long this 'plan' to fly to Manchester will take. The 77Ws will be delivered and deployed fairly quickly so will free up new aircraft soon, could we see KU by August?

And what aircraft would one expect? One poster on airliners.net said MAN services will not be daily so could we see a 77W on a three weekly basis for example or a 332/772 on a four/five weekly basis? What is your opinion?

 

[David_itl]

Potentially, I'd be looking for a winter 2017 start. Frequency wise, I doubt anything more than a couple of weekly services based on a mix of cargo and passenger numbers so they can bed the route in to begin with. I do wonder if A320s could be used as it's capacity is just 130 (20 business, 110 economy). The only issue I've got with the anything larger is that we're talking quite large 1st Class cabins i.e. the A330 is 17 first, 30 business and 165 economy, unless the cargo requirement is more than what the A320 can handle.

 

[ethanegcc]

I think there is a relatively large first class market for KWI overall though, hence the premium high configurations which wouldn't necessarily need to be filled from the MAN catchment. I have seen a September 2017 start on three weekly. If the cargo is a major aspect, surely the 772 would be a good shout but A330 more likely.

If the route was passenger orientated, an a320 may be better but it can't handle the amounts of cargo.

 

[ethanegcc]

With the recents of Iraqi, Oman and Kuwait popping up, MAN's ME network could will almost certainly look like this for S17:
DXB - three daily 388
DOH - three daily (ish) 788/77W
MCT - daily 332/333
AUH - two daily 77W/789/332
ISU, BGW - one weekly 320
JED - five weekly 789
TLV - unsure of frequency/airlines

Realistically, could it look like this later in the year - perhaps September?
DXB - three daily 388, one daily 77W?
DOH - same as above
AUH - three daily with alternation of 789/332/77W?
MCT - same as above
ISU/BGW - same as above
BSR/EBL - Iraqi Airways have said they may add these destinations from MAN, perhaps another weekly service?
JED - same as above or perhaps could we see a MAN-JED-RUH routing, whereby that route went daily, or possibly just the addition of a three weekly RUH service? This may not happen in 2017.
TLV - same as above
KWI - looking quite likely with a 3 weekly service from September on Kuwait Airways
IKA - will Mahan Air or Iran Air launch the route?

What do you think of this list?

 

[Coathanger16]

IKA - will Mahan Air or Iran Air launch the route?

Looks like Iran Air have HUGE expansion plans over the next decade. In the last 6 months they have announced orders for 118 Airbus aircraft (including 12 A380's) and 80 Boeing aircraft. Total orders amount to about 220 aircraft to be delivered over the next 8 years, whilst their current fleet stands at 26. Whilst this is nowhere near even a rumour of a Manchester to Tehran flight, I suspect if their is sufficient demand for a MAN-IKA flight, Iran Air would be in a very good position to operate such a flight.

 

[Aceshigh]

Good news that the NorthernPowerhouse will receive a delegation from India according to the MEN business news.

See below.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...dian-delegation-hungry-business-join-12306947

I'm slightly less enamoured that the director pushing this on Granada Reports tonight IS ALSO director of the Midlands Engine. .... Martin Venning.

Slight but ever so friendly conflict of interest methinks?

https://www.uk-midlands-engine.com/team/martin-venning/

 

[Aceshigh]

The Jet2 annoucement has also made the press.

Is it likely Jet2 will do any 3rd party work ?

 

[Aceshigh]

Which is the mystery airport ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/10/ryanair-feeder-flights-deal-set-take-off-within-months/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
Was this the gamechanger for Manchester mentioned two weeks back ?

It's not the main NOR base Oslo, as RYR don't serve main airport.

It can't be Gatwick can it. Barely worth it with RYR having a small presence.

Not STN unless Norwegian open up there as well as LGW unlikely. And I can't see NOR shifting their operation for just a few passengers.

Dublin ? Would Norwegian open up in IAGs backyard. MOL would like nothing better than to start dismantling BA EI.

OK maybe a leap of faith, but Manchester is the largest airport with both airlines and we know long haul is coming albeit not in the 1st QTR.

 

[Aceshigh]

Have included this article here as it's a market that does impact the Manchester catchment area although I'm unsure what the author is really suggesting ?

The banner headline proclaims "success" but it appears mischievous.

Quote
.... there has actually been a sizeable market that have used the air service for its local links though this has fallen from a high of 102,000 passengers in its first year of operation in 2013 to 52,000 last year.

So hang on, it's up 30% this year but last year lost over half it's passengers.

The demand figure "appears" to be an aspiration.

Have I read this correctly ?

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29...&utm_medium=social_media&utm_campaign=the-hub

 

[Seasider]

It is confusing unless they are talking about how many used it instead of the train. More people went back to using the train but, because pax went up, more were obviously using it for onward connections which is what BA want.
I have used it 6 times, all for onward connections.

 

[Dobbo]

Supposedly GU are another airline to look out for at MAN.

Obviously we have a long "long list" of rumours right now, and this seems credible in light of MANs strength to the Middle Eastern market.

Keeping my eye on VS in the new year. Firstly for news of plans for W17/18 and then, hopefully, new routes for S18.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

This one had me puzzled.

GU IATA code internet search produced Aviateca Guatemala.

I'm presuming you have a different carrier in mind!

Or has there been a recent code reallocation?

 

[Dobbo]

Apologies! GF!

(My excuse is it's late and been a long day!!)

 

[ethanegcc]

Yes, I saw Gulf Air on airliners.net

 

[EGCC_MAN]

No problem. Thanks for clearing that one up! As an aside, I was fortunate to fly on Gulf Air's original inaugural Manchester departure way back on 25.10.1992. B763 A4O-GG did the honours as GFA016 that day.

 

[Dobbo]

It does seem fairly logical - I suspect if Oman does well we might see more of the so-called second tier (by size) ME carriers arrive at MAN.

In the meantime, the case for new routes and increased frequencies on existing routes heading east continues to strengthen.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

There have been subtle adjustments though. Qatar Airways is operating B788's on all MAN services at present - this is a significant capacity downgrade from the B77W's which we enjoyed for afew months recently. And Etihad have replaced the afternoon B77W with A332 equipment. Of the MEB3, only Emirates have increased capacity with the move to 3 x A388 from January 2017, and that is not a huge jump in seats from 2 x A388 + 1 x B77W. Remember as well that some have expressed relative disappointment that they haven't yet introduced a fourth daily flight (though we mustn't be greedy). We also have Saudia 5 x W B789 and soon Oman Air daily to the region, so maybe a bit of caution makes sense all round, particularly with expansion by prestige Far East carriers and Shaheen eating into sandpit connecting markets as well. And Turkish Airlines connecting flights which compete with the MEB3 have been especially cheap since the coup attempt. Some bargains there.

If yields are threatened, I'd rather see these carriers manage capacity for long-term sustainability rather than engaging in a race for numerical supremacy at the expense of profits. Of course, another factor to consider is that Emirates and Qatar Airways have added significant capacity out of BHX in a relatively short time and this will impact on the southern area of MAN's catchment. There was discussion some weeks ago that Emirates might be / were trimming capacity at BHX - what was the outcome of this? I'm not sufficiently familiar with their schedule.