Archive Route Development & Rumours

[Scottie Dog]

Reported on 'Dried fruit' that Iraqi restart on 10th December.

 

[Dobbo]

Crikey - December 2016 (a week on Saturday).

That's short notice...

 

[User001]

Saturday's via Malmo and ESU to Baghdad.

It's very good, had seen an article that they had been allowed to hire in aircraft again, didn't expect MAN to return so quickly!

 

[Scottie Dog]

Initial Review of Flybe Summer 2017 services.

Peak week = 14th-20th August

Number of flights in peak week 2016 - 684
Number of flights in peak week 2017 - 735
Number of unbalanced flights 2017 - 24

Summary of unbalanced flights:

Glasgow - Monday and Friday only showing 3 return flights rather then 4
Isle of Man - Sunday shows 4 departure but only 3 arrivals
Jersey - Thursday and Saturday show 1 departure but 2 arrivals
Luxembourg - No inbound flights showing on any day
Norwich - Shows 1 return flight on Monday; 2 on Tuesday Wednesday and Friday: and 3 on Thursday. Currently 3 per weekday.

Potentially 7 new routes may be announced. If these operated twice daily Monday to Friday that would add a further 140 flights per week.

 

[Dobbo]

Good article from routesonline.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29...&utm_medium=social_media&utm_campaign=the-hub

 

[Dobbo]

Good article from routesonline.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29...&utm_medium=social_media&utm_campaign=the-hub

Had another look at the article, with hindsight it is probably a little bland and does not go into a number of issues/data you might expect it to.

They refer to a strong relationship with SQ and the opportunities there which is great and I suspect they might not be able to discuss the likes of Norwegian, Air China, Cathay etc. for commercial/confidentiality reasons.

The lack of detailed data is frustrating. The graph showing an increase in capacity is all well and good, but there is clearly a huge amount of O&D type data to jump into.

An article updating this CAPA one would be good to see.

http://centreforaviation.com/analys...eresting-model-for-the-industry-part-1-133323

 

[David_itl]

CAPA would need to look at themselves and see how they can square this off

"Birmingham has the propensity to grow at a faster rate than Manchester, which has almost maxed out on European routes and can really now only increase frequencies on those routes. Equalling Manchester’s route total must be a priority at Birmingham to bring it to parity;"

which is from the the BHX report they did in April. That MAN is almost matching the excellent BHX growth rate would have to be reflected on. It's one thing getting 10% growth on 10 or 11 million passengers but quite another when you are doing it on the basis of 23 million passengers - not all of which can be pinpointed on long-haul and/or frequency increases as we have had a number of new routes brought in. There are still a number of European routes out there that MAN doesn't have - starting off with 3 former ones... Moscow, Bucharest and Kosice. Yes, I'm putting Kosice as when Sky Europe operated the routes, they were getting pretty reasonable loads. You could imagine Ryanair looking into Bucharest and Kosice.

 

[Dobbo]

Well it would take something remarkable to happen for BHX to obtain parity with the extent and frequency of MANs route network.

That is no slight to BHX, it suffers because it's catchment is trapped between MAN and LHR, whereas MAN is well placed to catch an independent catchment area from places like Liverpool and Leeds.

I think we will see an increasing amount of direct long haul routes followed by a densification of short haul within Europe. Perhaps short haul airines will interline and feed the long haul more, but that is probably the logical next phase of development.

 

[User001]

We need to remember that short haul will also increase quite significantly next summer, and we already have some impressive frequency and diversification on European routes:

Amsterdam can be up to 14 times a day with 3 carriers, Dublin, Belfast and Heathrow between 8-10 daily

Barcelona is up to 35 weekly with 5 carriers and potentially more frequency to be added.

Palma can currently be up to 14 times per day, with more carriers and frequency to come! Malaga and Alicante in similar although not quite as extensive issue.

Frankfurt, Munich, dusseldorf, Hamburg, Paris, Milan, Brussels and Copenhagen all having 4 daily or more. So, it's not that bad really.

I think the biggest holes in the network at the moment are:

Bucharest, Seville, Moscow, Bordeaux and Santiago.

I could include the likes of Florence, but, at least we have flights to Pisa and Bologna. I could include the smaller Eastern Europe airports but they are still up and coming so may take time. As an enthusiast, I would like to see routes to Pristina, Skjope, Chisnau, Podgoricia or Timisoara, but, I feel the market is too small.

On from that, there are routes like Tromso, Vagar and Aalborg that could possibly attract weekend/football traffic. Could also start breaking into the more 'niche holiday' routes like Comiso, Bari, Pescara and the Azores, maybe in time.

 

[Aceshigh]

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.../chinese-new-big-spenders-manchester-12261980

 

[Aceshigh]

Just looking at the Gatwick schedule for Canada, the frequency is nothing short of remarkable. Are they really all tourists visiting Central London?

I assume they must be, but it is amazing that their view of the country is so narrow.

"Relatively speaking of course", incredibly we should double this for Heathrow.

Contrast this with the Chinese who visit the "country" ...... not just the capital !

 

[Dobbo]

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.../chinese-new-big-spenders-manchester-12261980

It's good to see how MAN benefits the city like this.

There was a similar story about Middle Eastern "big spenders" and if these trends are repeated across a number of business/industry sectors it shows how direct links to places like San Francisco, LA, Shanghai and Tokyo would help put the North of England on the map.

 

[Dobbo]

Just looking at the Gatwick schedule for Canada, the frequency is nothing short of remarkable. Are they really all tourists visiting Central London?

I assume they must be, but it is amazing that their view of the country is so narrow.

"Relatively speaking of course", incredibly we should double this for Heathrow.

Contrast this with the Chinese who visit the "country" ...... not just the capital !

What sort of Canadian services are at LGW?

I'd suspect more Canadian capacity must be in the pipeline for MAN?

 

[rutamkrd]

Credit to Adfly on dried fruit

Summer 2017 ex LGW

Air Canada Rouge

Toronto - 4 weekly 763
Vancouver (New!) - 3 weekly 763

Air Transat

Calgary - 3 weekly 332
Montreal - 3 weekly 313
Toronto - 10 weekly 333/332/313 (7x/2x/1x)
Vancouver - 7 weekly 332

Westjet

Calgary - 5 weekly 763
Edmonton - 2 weekly 763
Ottawa - 7 weekly 737 (via St John's)
St John's - 7 weekly 737
Toronto - 7 weekly 763
Vancouver - 6 weekly 763
Winnipeg - 1 weekly 763

 

[Dobbo]

That's huge, I assume there is a major seasonal fluctuation?

Were Westjet looking at MAN?

 

[Aceshigh]

It's massive Dobbo are they ALL heading for London ?

AND yes good point re The Middle Eastern visitors as well.

I had forgotten about that article.

...odd that from the West visitors see London, London and London and little else. I mean it's good but really is it that good ?

The prices are outrageous and as for getting on the tube no thanks. Transport down there is in meltdown re horrendous queues.

I know the metro has its moments but at least your not 200 metres underground crammed in barely able to breathe, forget that !

They would have to be paying me a fortune to suffer that twice daily !

 

[Dobbo]

It does seem disproportionate on the face of it, but I'm not basing that on anything in particular.

I didn't realise Westjet and Transat had such a large presence at LGW.

 

[David_itl]

What's the likelihood of Cyprus Airways coming here competing with Cobalt?

 

[User001]

With the way the market works, I'd say highly likely.

London and Manchester two of the biggest points for Cyprus.

 

[Dobbo]

Random query.

The feted article in the MEN noted both Cape Town and Johannesburg as future destinations from MAN.

We think we know TCX are planning MAN-CPT in W17. Do we have any idea about MAN-JNB? I assume not SAA or VS but I'm struggling to come up with a credible operator (I don't think JNB fits the TCX route profile).