Archive Route Development & Rumours

[David_itl]

I wonder if MAN and the construction companies are seeing if they can formulate a plan to see if they can bring forward completion dates on the various stages of the terminal development. I'm sure plans were drafted up on more moderate increase in movements/passenger numbers, even allowing for a large increase in non-based flying into the non-peak periods.

 

[Dobbo]

I certainly think they need to get the T2 terminal extension and North western finger pier up and running pronto...

 

[User001]

I'm worried the Terminal is already outdated before a spade has hit the ground to be frank.

 

[Dobbo]

Outdated or undersized?

 

[David_itl]

At the time, what was presented to the world seemed very reasonable as there would have been scope to always having room to grow. Not yet found a link to see proposed capacity levels over the next 10 years.

I've just looked at an article from the Financial Times from November 2015 https://www.ft.com/content/13bfe106-8fba-11e5-8be4-3506bf20cc2b which concludes with this paragraph:

"The Airport Commission, chaired by Sir Howard Davies forecast Manchester would have 26m passengers annually by 2020, with 33m by 2030."

So MAN is going to be 3 years early with that forecast!

 

[Dobbo]

I want to say that the TP was presented as being to take capacity to 30m pax?

It strikes me as low, given just how much larger the airfield and terminal facilities are but MAN will need headroom to expand at T1/3 after this work is done.

I wonder if the phasing will be implemented quicker?

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Sorry, User001. Lots of respect for you and your info, but I can't come close to going along with your suggestion of 30 million pax through MAN in 2017. That 15.3% increase you quote reflects a very early projection of S17 capacity based upon slots applied for so far. But as you know from experience, those numbers routinely consolidate to more customary levels as the new season approaches. And, of course, capacity added is not the same as seats occupied in the final analysis.

When one scans through an early season report, it is very easy to divide changes listed into "high confidence" and "low confidence" categories. Some changes simply don't happen. This is normal. There will be attrition between now and the start of S17 (there always is). Afew items will likely be added as well, but early season seat forecasts always fall away to a more realistic level by start of season. That should not spawn disappointment, it is due process in action.

Also, as others have alluded to, there is the small matter of the economy. Are we predicting a boom year for 2017? If so, on what do we base this assumption? We already know that travel is challenged in the short-term by currency exchange rates which mitigate against the pound. Next, we can't rule out the possibility of a carrier hitting the buffers at some point. It is only afew weeks since Monarch Airlines flirted with a near-death experience. I'm sure we all recall that. With overcapacity in many key markets it's a tough trading environment out there. I believe that occasional Manchester visitor Denim Air departed for the great hangar in the sky just yesterday.

And FlyBe, for example. Talk of a 60% increase in flights over one season? How will they achieve this? Have they got the resources? What about their much-discussed crew shortage? Is the market there to support such ambitious growth in the short term? Of course, if they merged with another regional operator such as Stobart or took over operation of the LHR Shuttle from BA this would account for a sizeable increase, but we'd have to deduct that capacity from the projected programme of the corresponding carrier. On the topic of FlyBe, they did have a modest 'Black Friday' event today offering 24000 seats network-wide for £24 single (and they were pretty difficult to find!). But if that was the "BIG announcement" they need to familiarise themselves with the fable of the boy who cried wolf. Is there something of more substance still to come?

I've gone on a bit, but the underlying message is this. We need to tailor our expectations to reality. If we don't do this, then the perfectly respectable growth which we can all hope to see in 2017 will leave us feeling very deflated. That would be unfortunate. In recent times, a MAG executive told us they were forecasting 2% growth in pax. Maybe a classic case of "under-promise, over-deliver", but certainly more realistic than forecasting an unlikely bonanza. The next banking crisis / credit crisis / currency crisis / terrorist outrage could come at any time. We can't presume blue sky conditions. Too many black swans circling out there.

 

[User001]

EGCC,

I appreciate 30m is probably a bit optimistic, but, I'm going on record now and saying if MAN only grows by 2% next year, then something would have gone very drastically wrong and I cannot envisage anything under 5%. Obviously anything over would be a bonus, but even taking my 'ever the optimist' hat off, if we we saw less than 5% in 2017 I would be extremely disappointed.

There are still many irons in the fire, there are some of the slots I have every confidence in (airlines applying I for the slots have the resilience to ride the start of any wave at least) and some of the info comes from inside knowledge.

We do of course, know the ACL giveth and the ACL taketh away regarding accuracy. As an example, it states Albastar and Evelop have applied for no slots what so ever, but, are clearly bookable in the Thomson system. There is also Air China who have not applied for slots thus far, but my contact is now very certain it's a May start.

Then we have the fact airlines such as Norwegian, Cathay, BA (in all guises) and Hainan have historically only ever applied for what they use, so, have no issues there. Also, looking at the ACL trend from 1st draft to final product, I'm yet to see a large wholesale change in forecast and slots. Yes, a few omissions, and possibly a few additions, but not a report where I have said 'well, that's completely different'.

Even with the slot hand back in January, by this stage, the ACL reports are pretty accurate, as some will testify as I did share some snippets from version one to the final draft. The wheat and chaff has had a few sorts, rogue slots dropped and any time wasters weeded out (for example, I know of one airline that regularly applies for MAN slots but never ever uses them, even this year applied for both W16 and S17 slots, but surprise surprise not in the draft again).

Is 2017 going to throw out a few challenges? Yes, of course it is. Is 30m too optimistic, yes, it probably is, but, is 5-7% achievable? Yes, I fully believe it is, and possibly surpass able.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

OK, I'm on board with 5-7%. That's more like it. I do accept that MAG have good reasons for low-balling their in-house forecasts to manage market expectation. Every company likes to over-deliver; it looks good. But talk of 15.3% and 30 million throughput is too ambitious from my perspective (and afew folks see the inside stuff!).

 

[Ray Finkle]

The boss of Air India has said that they will launch 'at least' six new destinations in 2017. Washington and Toronto will start and Stockholm, Copenhagen, Dar-es-Salaam and Nairobi have been mentioned. If there is a 7th surely MAN must be in with a shout?

 

[User001]

There are supposedly the charters in May but no slots have been applied for by any Indian carrier.

Given its such a huge market, one would hope at least one Indian carrier would start a route.

Jet have been saying for years they are interested, but the Etihad tie up holds us back.

Vistara are interested, but don't yet do long haul. Same with Scoot.

Air India could be the answer, they have, at MIDS meetings, said they would be open to using a B787 to MAN. Given the MAN-DEL and MAN-BOM markets are bigger than BHX (BHX strength lies in ATQ), it may be that they want to protect their BHX flights in the same way Virgin and Thomas Cook don't start BHX to protect their MAN flights.

MAN-India is stronger than the likes of Stockholm and Copenhagen etc, so, one has to wonder why they are getting priority on flights, which brings it back to 'protecting what they have' UK wise.

I'm confident it will happen one day, enough airlines are making the right noises, but I fear it will be 2018 before any real progress is made,

 

[Aceshigh]

Interesting re Air India ;

A) Operating to 3 UK airports located within 200miles of each other seems odd.

B) Not operating to a major airport / market like Manchester seems a major miss .

...both statements are correct !

 

[ethanegcc]

I think that AA (for a certain length) and UA have managed to do it successfully on a under 8hrs route - so DEL could do the same. For a long route, yes, e.g. SQ/NH etc. operating to BHX/MAN/LHR would be neigh-on impossible.

BHX and MAN are very different markets for India flights - as stated above, it is ATQ that is the strongest element of the BHX route and I dare say there is a lot more VFR traffic from BHX as there is a larger Indian population than MAN.

MAN would be more of a business driven route.

Jet seem perfect for MAN with a 332. They could also codeshare on VS MAN-SFO, BOS, MCO, JFK if the times aligned, like they have done at LHR/CDG/AMS. Although it could temporarily dent the EY figures, EY are not the only carrier that can operate MAN-India you could go on LH/AF/KL/BA/AI/TK/SV/WY/EK/QR/EY and the list goes on for 1 stops.

Air India, well, they are Air India. Anything could happen. MAD is being launched?! A much smaller market with no feed at the end. I can understand ARN/CPH because of the SK feed but, in my opinion, the Madrid launch should have been Manchester.

Who knows, if the charters do happen it could materialise into a long haul scheduled flight?

On the Vistara/Scoot point, it would surely be one or the other, as both are owned by SQ. I just wish it could happen sooner, as, despite Scoot having range capable aircraft, they would have to amend the bilateral.

To be honest, I think SQ should transfer some 772s (replaced by 359s) to Vistara so they can launch BOM-MAN etc. It wouldn't take long and we know that SQ have a long time commitment to MAN.

India is definitely a chink in the armour of MAN, in the same way China seems to be for BHX. WY have clearly seen the market as most of there connecting pax will be going to India, so why can't AI?

 

[Coathanger16]

India is definitely a chink in the armour of MAN, in the same way China seems to be for BHX. WY have clearly seen the market as most of there connecting pax will be going to India, so why can't AI?

I believe its been said before in the post, but what impact would an AI flight to MAN have on their current flights to BHX?

Prior to launching Madrid, Air India didn't serve the Iberian Peninsular at all. On the other hand, they do already operate to 2 UK airports.

 

[ethanegcc]

I can think of countless airlines that don't serve the Iberia continent and why? Because they don't need to- there are more important markets.

LATAM serve MAD and BCN. It is like saying they should change their BCN flights to HEL, because they don't serve the Scandinavia yet!

 

[Coathanger16]

I can think of countless airlines that don't serve the Iberia continent and why? Because they don't need to- there are more important markets.

LATAM serve MAD and BCN. It is like saying they should change their BCN flights to HEL, because they don't serve the Scandinavia yet!

My point was they already serve 2 destinations in the UK. Whilst there is certainly demand for a Manchester to India route, how much of a priority is it for Air India.

You're example of LATAM isn't the same. A similar situation would be LATAM launching a flight to HEL before adding a flight to another Spanish City. Air India haven't stopped flying to a UK destination in order to launch Madrid.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I believe its been said before in the post, but what impact would an AI flight to MAN have on their current flights to BHX?

Air India will be annoucing an increase in BHX flights very soon, currently daily going to 13 per week and including YYZ

 

[Aceshigh]

http://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2024841

Nice codeshare re Flybe SIA.

 

[Dobbo]

I thought (but could be wrong) this had already been announced?

 

[Aceshigh]

Yes I did wonder myself ....