Bristol: Airport Route Development & Rumours

[Severn]

Regarding Qatar announcing 2 new routes from the UK at some point in the near future, I thought I'd list all the airports in the UK that handle over 1,000,000 passengers per year and have a runway over 6,000ft meaning a route to the Middle East with any of the ME3 carriers (EMIRATES, QATAR, ETIHAD) might be possible at this time.
Therefore London City, Belfast City and Southampton have been removed from the list.)
The list is ordered by number of pax per year and I have added any current services to the Middle East by any of the ME3 carriers and their weekly frequency (taken from a week in August 2017):

Over 40,000,000 pax per year
HEATHROW (Emirates: 56 / Qatar: 42 / Etihad: 21)
GATWICK (Emirates: 21)

Under 40,000,000 pax per year
MANCHESTER (Emirates: 21 / Qatar: 16 / Etihad: 14)
STANSTED

Under 20,000,000 pax per year
LUTON
EDINBURGH (Qatar: 7 / Etihad: 7)
BIRMINGHAM (Emirates: 21 / Qatar: 7)

Under 10,000,000 pax per year
GLASGOW (Emirates: 14)
BRISTOL
BELFAST INTERNATIONAL

Under 5,000,000 pax per year
NEWCASTLE (Emirates: 7)
LIVERPOOL (JOHN LENNON)
EAST MIDLANDS INTERNATIONAL
LEEDS BRADFORD

Under 3,000,000 pax per year
ABERDEEN
CARDIFF WALES
DONCASTER SHEFFIELD

Looking at the above list I'd say LGW and BRS are most likely to see a QR service next. Here is my reasoning:

• LGW with 43,000,000 passengers a year and given that EK can operate 21 flights per week, it seems like a good bet for a QR service next.
• LTN and STN currently only have destinations within Europe, Israel and North Africa. Both airports seem an unlikely choice for any of the ME3 if they already serve at least one other (bigger) London area airports.
• GLA and EDI are so close together it seems unlikely that in the near future any of the ME3 will fly to both GLA and EDI at the same time. Therefore as QR operate to EDI (and at only 1x daily) it seems unlikely they will open up a new route to GLA.
• BRS is next highest on the list (in terms of pax numbers), and is situated in the South West which does not currently have any ME3 carriers serving it at all - I think it's only time until one (likely to be QR) will start a service.
• BFS couldn't keep a full-service transatlantic route running without subsidy from the government. Given that the centre of Belfast to Dublin Airport is only 1hr45 by car and a large amount of the population will be living either in or South of Belfast (which is even closer to DUB) it therefore seems unlikely that any of the ME3 who all currently serve DUB (EK: 14pw / QR: 7pw / EY: 14pw) would also open up a BFS route. Also useful to note the difference in population size of the wider catchment area of BFS in comparison to BRS or LPL for example.
• NCL seems unlikely that with passenger numbers around 4,800,000 and 1x daily flight with Emirates that this could cope with QR as well. BRS handles 3,000,000 more passengers a year than NCL, surely making that a safer bet.
• LPL, EMA have passenger numbers similar to NCL and no ME3 service, however are within a stones throw of much larger airports (MAN & BHX) both with multiple ME3 services.
• LBA has 3,600,000 pax per year, and although had for a time, a service to Pakistan, I would say it may be in front of LPL and EMA in the queue, but won't be scheduled a route in the near future.
• CWL, DSA both have less than 1,500,000 passengers per year, which surely counts them out at this stage for a direct flight to the Middle East.

 

[forest1979]

Re the Qatar announcement, are you referring to the Bloomberg piece on the net?

 

[Jerry]

CWL,

BFS

Although the chances of either getting a Qatar service are slim i wouldn't count either out. Both BFS and CWL have the backing of devolved governments. BFS has already secured a Norwegian transatlantic service with financial help from the NI government and could do again with a Doha service. It's the same for CWL the WG may well be able to put a financial package together that doesn't break EU rules to attract a Doha service and they have mentioned they are after one and CWL does have the ability for that service to potentially draw passengers from BRS's catchment area. My personal opinion though is that any long haul from CWL is now very unlikely and i wouldn't be surprised if it also loses it's cruise charters as well as it seems to have lost Orlando. If Qatar does turn up at BRS then it will be interesting to see how it fares. Great post by the way!

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Qatar Airways said to eye new flights to Gatwick, Ireland - Transport - ArabianBusiness.com

In November 2015 the Qatar UK and Ireland manager said the airline was looking to introduce flights to Gatwick and Ireland, which he said could be Dublin or Belfast.

Since then Dublin has been announced and will commence this June.

The manager was also quoted as saying his airline was looking at serving South West England and 'possibly' another Scottish airport.

Whilst plans can always change in aviation, based on this linked report Gatwick and either a South West England airport or a Scottish airport will be next in line.

Although BRS would seem the obvious choice for South West England in terms of its catchment size and economic make-up of the region it serves, the Welsh Government has plenty of money to spend to attract airlines to CWL which could serve South West England. Qatar might also take a gamble that long haul APD will be devolved to Wales in the future where the Welsh Government intends to axe it or reduce it to nil (same result). Dealing with an airport where the owner has the luxury of setting its own APD rates might be an attractive proposition to any airline.

As for 'another Scottish airport' the only contender would surely be GLA.

Note: If anyone has seen this post in another aviation forum, it's not been plagiarised. My alter ego was responsible for the other post.

 

[IanFarquharson]

BIRMINGHAM (Emirates: 21 / Qatar: 17)

QR 17pw - I wish !!

 

[ethanegcc]

Is the BHX number supposed to be 7fpw?

Anyway, one would guess LGW, BRS or BFS. Boeing 787-8 is the perfect aircraft for these destinations.

 

[Barry Man]

Jerry you say CWL has lost Orlando, well this week Thomas cook did a flight from CWL to Orlando A330.

 

[Severn]

BIRMINGHAM (Emirates: 21 / Qatar: 17)

QR 17pw - I wish !!

Apologies, I blame the copy and paste!
I've gone through all the carriers and checked (and changed) the flights per week for all carriers. All for a set week in August 2017.

 

[Jerry]

Jerry you say CWL has lost Orlando, well this week Thomas cook did a flight from CWL to Orlando A330.

From next year there is no Orlando flights

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Qatar

I read in another airport thread on this site that BRS might have blotted its copybook for a ME route because it lost the Continental Newark service.

There were several circumstances that led to CO pulling out, the main ones being a lack of full fare passengers in the business/first cabin, the massive recession that saw passenger numbers on the route fall after the early years exceeded the airline's publicly stated projections and, almost certainly the main reason (that would probably have occurred even had BRS maintained its early 'promise') which was Continental's access to Heathrow.

When CO began the BRS-EWR route in May 2005 the airline had no Heathrow rights and their London destination was Gatwick. Within a couple of years this changed and CO promptly closed their Gatwick operation and moved to Heathrow. I thought then that the BRS route was on borrowed time and so it proved. The airline in effect transferred the BRS aircraft (a 757) to the Heathrow route to become the fifth daily rotation to Newark from there. That was five and a half years after the BRS route had begun.

Newcastle, with about 4.8 mppa through its airport currently against BRS's 7.7 mppa, saw considerably smaller loads on United's NCL-EWR route than CO's on BRS-EWR, and the United route was axed last year after two summers' operation. Yet NCL seems to do well with the daily Emirates flight to Dubai that has been running for a number of years.

I don't think that the EWR experience would play much of a part if any in an airline's thoughts if it was considering a ME route from BRS.

Leaving aside STN and LTN, BRS is easily the busiest UK airport with no ME connection. Whether that would be a major plus I have no idea.

In terms of operations, BRS has no airbridge which would surely be a requirement if Qatar decided to connect the North Somerset Mountains with the sands of Arabia. It has planning permission for one though, planning permission that was amended a couple of years ago to accommodate a Boeing 787 so I don't see that as a sticking point. BRS currently has two lounges: an Aspire and an AspirePlus. Qatar uses lounges other than its own for premium passengers at smaller airports around the world and AspirePlus would certainly fit that bill.

Whether BRS really is in with a realistic shout to be one of the two new Qatar UK airports that are supposed to be announced this year is probably anyone's guess.

 

[Marko1]

In fairness to the criticism of continental and Bristol I think that out of the possible 5 candidates - lgw , Stn, Ncl , brs and bfs, all had a continental/united route and all didn't last. In particular bfs couldn't last even with 0 apd. So I think brs has a serious chance to gain a me route. It has a large and prosperous catchment area something bfs does not have. I going to go for stansted or Gatwick plus Bristol (fingers crossed )

 

[Jerry]

Looking at the the configuration of their 787s Qatar has 22 business class seats in a 1-2-1 layout and 232 economy class seats in a 3-3-3 layout. If it is down to either BRS or BFS then I've no doubt both would fill the economy but personally I think BRS would stand a better chance of filling the business class up with less upgrades than BFS. The only thing I would wonder about is how it would effect KLM as they offer a similar service (1 stop going east) though Qatar would be able to get more of the Australian and New Zealand traffic than KLM.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Looking at the the configuration of their 787s Qatar has 22 business class seats in a 1-2-1 layout and 232 economy class seats in a 3-3-3 layout. If it is down to either BRS or BFS then I've no doubt both would fill the economy but personally I think BRS would stand a better chance of filling the business class up with less upgrades than BFS. The only thing I would wonder about is how it would effect KLM as they offer a similar service (1 stop going east) though Qatar would be able to get more of the Australian and New Zealand traffic than KLM.

I can't remember KLM being affected when the daily Continental to Newark operated for five and a half years. These things tend to generate their own passengers. I'd look at such a service seriously to fly 'Down Under'. In my case I'd be transferring my patronage from another airline and from another UK airport.

 

[kraktoa]

plymouth and its surrounding areas has started attracting rich Arabs during our cooler summer periods. This probably has not gone unnoticed. Furthermore there are more and more Arab students studying in our catchment universities.

 

[Sierra3]

As I stated up thread (or was it another BRS thread), having lived in the Middle East for almost 25 years, have met, worked with / for loads of high value earners who have homes / families in the BRS catchment area. Many work on unaccompanied time on / off bases (ie 60 days on / 60 days off etc), most of them are entitled to J Class travel.

Nearly all have agreed that the drive / train / taxi journey to LHR is a total waste of time & money. However many like the FF benefits, (personally think its of very limited value), so that they pick them up going through LHR on quality airlines with large networks. For example no one seems to prefer FF points / miles on a carrier like Gulf or Saudia. Having sampled CO's offering I wonder if that wasn't part of the reason for light loads in the front end of their BRS flights.

What is needed is a high quality airline, like QR, with a good FF programme & loads of connecting destinations (both business & leisure) that Jo public actually wants to fly to.

Taking QR as an example, connecting via Doha you can cover an arc from Hong Kong via Australia to South Africa, without undue extra mileage. Don't think they'd have to try very hard to fill up 22 premium seats a day. Additionally QR is 'One World' so some benefits could 'cross over' to / from BA pax, (not quite sure how that works).

If BA put a flight number on the service (very doubtful), then one flight a day would not be enough.

 

[juliet-fox-9]

From RoutesOnline: Italian airline Neos will fly Verona-Bristol and Verona-Newcastle on Saturdays this summer with a B738.

Verona – Bristol
NO6830 VRN 13:00 – BRS 14:10
NO6831 BRS 15:00 – VRN 18:00

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This has been operating for several years on summer Saturdays for TUI (Crystal Summer and Thomson Lakes & Mountains). The flight used to be flown for TUI by Mistral (B734) but Neos took over a year or two ago. bmi regional also operates a Saturday summer Verona for Inghams.

 

[ethanegcc]

If BA put a flight number on the service (very doubtful), then one flight a day would not be enough.

I think British Airways codeshare on QR's MAN/BHX/LHR/EDI-DOH routes

 

[Marko1]

I see that we have lost the chance of Qatar to Cardiff. Bitter blow to Middle East hopes.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I see that we have lost the chance of Qatar to Cardiff. Bitter blow to Middle East hopes.

I suspect it's game over for the next few years at least. BRS will probably have to settle for what it's exceptionally good at: punching above its weight on short-haul with the occasional long-haul charter as well.

Given the make-up and size of the respective catchments the Qatar news is rather surprising, but I wonder if an aircraft type other than a B787-8 (which I'd always assumed would be the type from BRS or CWL) might have struggled on the BRS runway. There is talk of B737 MAX or 321NEO operating the CWL route; I'm not sure of their capabilities on a longish route to Doha from the BRS runway.

It may be also that the Welsh Government wanted the route more and were prepared to invest. The WG, though its airport company, is looking to boost the Welsh economy as well as ultimately find itself with a profitable airport, although the latter is less of a priority at the moment (from its public pronouncements in recent months). OTP, on the other hand, has to judge what is in the best interest of its members in terms of its balance sheet.

At least this will be another choice for West Country people to reach the ME and beyond, so there is a positive aspect: better to have a second choice than none at all, although that concept doesn't always find favour with some people living in Wales who have to use BRS for some destinations.