Cardiff: General Airport Discussion & Updates

[Samdorob]

Here's to more days with 42 departures. Looks like the airport can handle it.

I watched a few arriving on Saturday. It was refreshing to see a steady stream of flights coming in. The same goes for all the coaches up and down Port road. We often talk about catching flights out to continental Europe, but it would be great to see a lot more inbound tourism through the airport.

 

[CAN&I]

Why don’t we just wait and see what the ruling is? This is why Barristers have been employed, they are the experts. This is a complex area.

^^^THIS^^^

Well said Nuffsaid. 👏👏👏👏👏👏

Let the Competition Appeals Tribunal consider the evidence and arguments set out by Bristol Airport and the Welsh Government and make the ONLY judgement that is actually relevant in this matter.

 

[Nuffsaid]

passengers.

With the planned growth already in place Cardiff shouldn't have a problem getting back over the 1 million mark in 2026 even 1.1 million might even

Could the airport get over the rolling year 1m passenger mark before the May elections? This would prove the political detractors at Conform wrong.

 

[Jerry]

Could the airport get over the rolling year 1m passenger mark before the May elections? This would prove the political detractors at Conform wrong.

Unfortunately probably not even if it did the stats probably wouldn't be know until after May.

 

[CAN&I]

Could the airport get over the rolling year 1m passenger mark before the May elections? This would prove the political detractors at Conform wrong.

By May's election we would only have the rolling year figures up to and including February 2026.

Looking at the numbers (very crudely admittedly): if you take the average monthly growth figure from Q4 (20.5%) and apply to January / February PLUS add in the 13,000 French airlift increase BUT take away the 1,760 passengers lost due to Loganair and the 4,000 passengers for last year's airlift in the other direction, you'd arrive at a figure of 977,621 for the rolling year (22,379 short of 1 million)

Even if the same principle was extrapolated, it would be at least May 2026 before the 1million mark would be achieved across the rolling year, assuming the average growth figure remained of course.

(Just an example - there's plenty of other calculation assumptions that could be made for sure 🙂 )

Critically Jerry has already raised the most powerful stat, i.e. Cardiff's annual rate of growth at 9% was not only 4.5 times Bristol's 2%, it was also way above the adjusted industry average (5.5%).

Even more startling is that Cardiff Airport attracted more new customers from the south Wales market in 2025 than Bristol Airport, roughly 55% more. Both figures are astonishing in the circumstances and especially so given the lack of a substantial low-cost base.

 

[Jerry]

It won't be until May until it's broken I'm sure. It'll be close in the months leading up to it though. Does feel like a milestone for the airport to achieve so I expect that they'll be very vocal about it on social media.

 

[CAN&I]

It won't be until May until it's broken I'm sure. It'll be close in the months leading up to it though. Does feel like a milestone for the airport to achieve so I expect that they'll be very vocal about it on social media.

It'll mark a hell of an achievement for sure, especially given the crumbs they've had to work with.

Yet you can bet your last dollar that there'll be a chorus of voices baiting the news and anyone who frames it as a positive with either "So what? They had 1.6million in 2019 and 2.1 million in 2007" or "big deal, Bristol has 11 million without tax payer handouts", blah blah blah...

 

[Jerry]

It'll mark a hell of an achievement for sure, especially given the crumbs they've had to work with.

Yet you can bet your last dollar that there'll be a chorus of voices baiting the news and anyone who frames it as a positive with either "So what? They had 1.6million in 2019 and 2.1 million in 2007" or "big deal, Bristol has 11 million without tax payer handouts", blah blah blah...

I've no doubt there will be the usual negativity. Even if the airport ever gets back to over 2 million there'll still be those being negative about it and complaining about how they can't fly to some obscure destination that only London has 😆

 

[geoff]

New airline for CWL, Norse Atlantic will be operating P&O Cruise flights from CWL to Barbados winter 26/27, with both premium and economy seating announced today in Travel Weekly.

 

[CAN&I]

New airline for CWL, Norse Atlantic will be operating P&O Cruise flights from CWL to Barbados winter 26/27, with both premium and economy seating announced today in Travel Weekly.

Interesting. Looks like Norse is picking up TUI's capacity, which in turn moves to Exeter Airport. The news will no doubt raise an eyebrow as to why TUI's previous P&O service from Bristol Airport was not reinstated to serve the wider south west market, nevertheless its a welcome boost to both Cardiff and Exeter.

 

[geoff]

I think I'm correct in thinking that Norse operate 787-9 aircraft, so it will mean more capacity from CWL.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

Cruise flights have always done well from Cardiff. Bristol haven't seen many at all over the years.
Between Cardiff, Exeter and Bournemouth it probably covers most areas.
From reading elsewhere Norse haven't had a good reputation for reliability in comparison to TUI.

 

[Jerry]

With the addition of Turin Cardiff Airport now serves 37 destinations to 22 countries.

 

[Jerry]

If anyone is interested the transcript of the Bristol Airport v Welsh Ministers hearing is here.

1740/12/13/25 Bristol Airport v Welsh Ministers | Competition Appeal Tribunal

www.catribunal.org.uk

 

[Jerry]

If anyone is interested the transcript of the Bristol Airport v Welsh Ministers hearing is here.

1740/12/13/25 Bristol Airport v Welsh Ministers | Competition Appeal Tribunal

www.catribunal.org.uk

I've spent part of the day reading the transcripts from this. In the Welsh Government submission a new MRO facility is mentioned but also in the general aviation part its mentioned that new hangars are going to be developed. Whether the 2 are connected and the MRO facility could be for general aviation is anyone's guess. Its mentioned in Day2 transcript page 16.

 

[Jerry]

I've spent part of the day reading the transcripts from this. In the Welsh Government submission a new MRO facility is mentioned but also in the general aviation part its mentioned that new hangars are going to be developed. Whether the 2 are connected and the MRO facility could be for general aviation is anyone's guess. Its mentioned in Day2 transcript page 16.

To add to this during the submission in both Bristol's and Welsh Governments submissions the matter of ownership has been mentioned. Selling the airport to private ownership is often muted as an option by many but one reason that Welsh Ministers are stated as against it is that they believe that being in government ownership ensures an airport strategy that's best for the whole of Wales and losing ownership means that they wouldn't have control over that. I suspect there's fear of what happened before in that.
Also with reference to the route development fund its stated that it would be a targeted fund with certain criteria for a route that the airport would have to apply for.

 

[CAN&I]

Also with reference to the route development fund its stated that it would be a targeted fund with certain criteria for a route that the airport would have to apply for.

Precisely. It was never designed to be a blanket £205m handout as so many state it is. The package is designed to be a maximum annual pot of £20.5million available for drawdown against certain criteria with ringfenced sub-pots according to the area of the business applying for funding. All applications are vetted and controlled against a set of parameters by WGC Holdco, the holding company and governance body sitting between Welsh Government and CIAL.

There's a few further nuggets within the transcriptions that are of interest:

- Welsh Government Ministers (WGM) couldn’t make their mind up if the money formed a subsidy or a subsidy scheme. There's a difference between the two regards the rules that need to be followed.

- The CAT has no jurisdiction to demand the recovery of money already paid under the subsidy so this is a test case as to how far they can go in that respect if they find in BRS’s favour.

- As we know, WG / CIAL practically bankrolled the Flybe base 2015-19 and paid the leases on 3 based aircraft. It seems the deal was supposedly a 10-year contract which implies CWL lost a lot of money when Flybe decided to remove its based aircraft ahead of the 2020 summer season yet collapsed anyway the immediately before lockdown.

- BRS appeared to deny WGM’s claim that upfront payments to airlines was the norm which, as we all know, is b******s. That’s precisely how Ryanair works for example. EasyJet admittedly might have a different incentive program in place but it still amounts to airlines receiving money or other favours, either directly or otherwise, amounting to financial incentive in some form.

- BRS challenged WGM’s characterisation that they were not a long-haul airport and had no immediate plans to enter the market as unfair. They claimed they were “already” a long-haul airport, having previously operated transatlantic flights as far back as 2007.

- WGM seemed to play down their ambitions for CWL in the low-cost leisure market and claimed they were happy for BRS to continue mostly unchallenged as that was their bread and butter. Instead, they want to focus on low-cost European city targets that offer a more substantial mix of leisure and business, as well as long haul hub routes to North America and the Middle East. The route expansion was positioned as an enabler to enhance business links and inbound tourism as well as being able to contribute greater passenger income for the purposes of reinvestment into the non-passenger business.

- BRS’s argument that WGM routinely failed to assess competitive impact on business or entities outside Wales and that the impact assessment of the subsidy on BRS was treated in the same way and was not open to due scrutiny was disputed by the chair, given the subsidy system was UK-wide and therefore open to scrutiny on a national basis.

- BRS also argued WGM decisioning routinely and unfairly impacted non-Welsh businesses because they didn’t have a say in their policy or decisioning. The chair countered that even if the business was located in Wales, it would be ineligible to vote or determine policy because it was a business, not a member of the voting public.

- WGM’s argument that the CAT outcome could influence the Senedd election or result in a forced response from an outgoing government seemed to fall on deaf ears. BRS want the outcome to be made public ASAP, the chair was minded to do the same but has opted to seek counsel on the matter. Should the CAT go ahead regardless it is possible a judgement could be made public before the last day of Senedd business on 27th March.

- Even if the decision goes against WGM, it seems all is not lost (asides political and reputational credibility). WGM have three choices - either withdraw the subsidy and enter into a commercial funding agreement (loans or cash/equity swap), look for commercial backing via private enterprise or partial sale (the latter of which would mean relinquishing direct control over its future) OR nationalise under the emergency powers of the “operator of last resort” legislation (as they did with TFW).

Neither side appeared to completely cover themselves in glory with the chair having to go round the houses to clarify some of the cack-handed arguments and positioning, especially the subsidy/subsidy scheme point and BRS's complaints about the amount of CWL information it could discuss without falling foul of commercial confidentiality.

It'll be interesting to see which way the CAT judgment falls. It’s a cliche of course but based on the transcripts and evidence presented the ruling could feasibly go either way.

 

[Jerry]

Even if the decision goes against WGM, it seems all is not lost (asides political and reputational credibility).

There seems to be a credit facility available that would cover until 2027 so there's money there for the future so any new government can figure out new funding.

partial sale (the latter of which would mean relinquishing direct control over its future)

Which ironically would probably mean a commercial operator going more after the leisure LCC market which the WG state is Bristol main business and less select inbound tourism and business routes.

 

[CAN&I]

There seems to be a credit facility available that would cover until 2027 so there's money there for the future so any new government can figure out new funding.

CIAL also has positive "cash in the bank" as of last year's accounts so they have liquidity to play with too. 👍

Which ironically would probably mean a commercial operator going more after the leisure LCC market which the WG state is Bristol main business and less select inbound tourism and business routes.

Yes! Which would potentially add an even more significant competitor to its main market area alongside Bournemouth and Exeter to the south and south west of its patch, as operated by their most vocal supporters, R&CA.

 

[geoff]

Unusual visitor to CWL at 12.09am today was Qatar executive Gulfstream A7-CHF arrived from Miami, parked on stand 17. Any opinions as to reason for visit? Possible talks with CWL management, line maintenance with Global Trek, or something to do with the events in Iran this morning?