Flybe

[Aviador]

I would imagine they're not entirely satisfied with the way the London City route is performing but it's still a new route. I just hope they give it long enough to bed in.

 

[Jerry]

I would imagine they're not entirely satisfied with the way the London City route is performing but it's still a new route. I just hope they give it long enough to bed in

I've heard mixed things from full loads to 20 pax but hopefully the yeilds will be good enough as i think CWL need flybe to base non E195's to show the base has got a future beyond the Embraers and there are some routes that would be better on a Q400 freeing up the E jets for more european flights especially Italy as that seems to be doing well!

 

[Jerry]

Just heard on another forum that GCI will start Tuesday 2nd May and will be 3 weekly on a Blue Islands 66 seater ATR 72-500.
Tuesday and Thursday
09.45-10.45 GCI-CWL
11.15-12.15 CWL-GCI
Saturday
12.15-13.15 GCI-CWL
13.45-14.45 CWL-GCI

 

[superking]

blue islands have not got any atr 72 in the fleet. are they getting one to operate this route and others as well.

 

[Severn]

Blue Islands do have ATR72 in their fleet, here is a summary of their entire fleet:
2x ATR42-320 (G-ISLH, G-ZEBS - both 46 Seats)
1x ATR42-500 (G-ISLF - 48 Seats)
2x ATR72-500 (G-ISLI - 66 Seats, G-ISLK - 70 Seats)

They are currently leasing a Danish ATR72 to cover G-ISLI which was damaged

 

[Jerry]

Well the CWL market will naturally be smaller. I'm surprised they are doing BRS 11 weekly with Aurigny on that route as well. Maybe though they need to because of Aurigny. But it is another new route for CWL and a new airline! I'm looking forward to seeing how the new routes fare next year. Especially FCO!

 

[Jerry]

Flybe have now released BHD and GLA for S17.
BHD Monday to Friday
CWL-BHD 11.30-12.40
BHD-CWL 14.00-15.10
Saturday
CWL-BHD 11.30-12.40
BHD-CWL 16.15-17.25
Sunday
CWL-BHD 10.40-11.50
BHD-CWL 14.00-15.10

GLA Monday to Friday
CWL-GLA 19.20-20.40
GLA-CWL 21.05-22.30
Saturday
CWL-GLA 18.10-19.25
GLA-CWL 19.50-21.15
Sunday
CWL-GLA 19.25-20.40
GLA-CWL 21.05-22.30

All we are waiting for is the LCY flights to be released as the timings here seem to confirm that CWL will have a based Q400 during S17 with the crews rotated through BHD!

 

[Jerry]

Now that Flybe's Summer 17 is now on time I thought i'd post their schedule.
Edinburgh
Monday and Friday
CWL-EDI 06.20-07.30 EDI-CWL 08.00-09.15
CWL-EDI 20.40-21.50 EDI-CWL 22.20-23.35
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
CWL-EDI 06.20-07.30 EDI-CWL 08.00-09.15
CWL-EDI 20.05-21.15 EDI-CWL 21.45-23.00
Saturday
CWL-EDI 06.20-07.30 EDI-CWL 08.00-09.15
Sunday
CWL-EDI 15.25-16.35 EDI-CWL 17.05-18.20 (this flight comes up on the website but is not bookable at the moment)
CWL-EDI 19.30-20.40 EDI-CWL 21.10-22.25

Dublin
Monday to Friday and Sunday
CWL-DUB 06.20-07.20 DUB-CWL 07.50-08.50
CWL-DUB 16.10-17.10 DUB-CWL 17.40-18.40
Saturday
CWL-DUB 06.20-07.20 DUB-CWL 07.50-08.50

Cork
Saturday
CWL-ORK 18.50-19.50 ORK-CWL 20.20-21.15
from 22nd April
CWL-ORK 20.20-21.20 ORK-CWL 21.50-22.45
Tuesday ends in after June
CWL-ORK 09.30-10.35 ORK-CWL 11.05-12.00

Berlin
Tuesday and Thursday
CWL-TXL 19.10-22.10 TXL-CWL 22.50-23.59
Sunday
CWL-TXL 09.20-12.20 TXL-CWL 13.00-14.10

Faro
Tuesday and Thursday (the Tuesday flight begins 20th June)
CWL-FAO 09.30-12.00 FAO-CWL 12.40-14.20
Saturday
CWL-FAO 14.00-16.30 FAO-CWL 17.10-19.50
Sunday
CWL-FAO 18.15-20.45 FAO-CWL 21.25-00.05

Jersey
Monday and Friday
CWL-JER 13.25-14.15 JER-CWL 14.45-15.40

Milan
Monday and Friday
CWL-MXP 09.45-12.45 MXP-CWL 13.25-14.30
Wednesday
CWL-MXP 09.20-12.20 MXP-CWL 13.00-14.05
Sunday
CWL-MXP 06.20-09.20 MXP-CWL 10.00-11.05

Munich
Monday, Wednesday and Friday
CWL-MUC 19.10-22.05 MUC-CWL 22.45-23.50

Paris CDG
Monday and Friday
CWL-CDG 09.20-11.35 CDG-CWL 12.25-12.45
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday
CWL-CDG 09.45-12.00 CDG-CWL 12.50-13.10
Sunday
CWL-CDG 11.35-13.50 CDG-CWL 14.30-14.50

Rome FCO
Tuesday
CWL-FCO 13.50-17.25 FCO-CWL 18.05-19.35
Saturday
CWL-FCO 09.20-12.55 FCO-CWL 13.35-15.05

Verona
Wednesday
CWL-VRN 14.45-17.50 VRN-CWL 18.30-19.35
Saturday
CWL-VRN 16.00-19.05 VRN-CWL 19.50-20.55

I will update it with LCY when that schedule gets released.

 

[Jerry]

All together that works out at 134 flights a week by Flybe from CWL at peak during the summer. 2184 seats on a potentially based Q400 (so far) and 12,508 seats on the 2 based Embraer 195's. Between the 2 Embraer they will average 7 departures a day and the Q400 2 (so far).

 

[Jerry]

Flybe Stats for October 2016

London City 3941 average pax load 36 LF 46%
Belfast City 3897 average pax load 63 LF 81%
Edinburgh 8172 average pax load 75 LF 64%
Glasgow 3407 average pax load 65 LF 55%
Jersey 1526 average pax load 55 LF 47%
Paris CDG 4361 average pax load 70 LF 59%
Berlin TXL 763 average pax load 42 LF 36%
Dusseldorf 489 average pax load 49 LF 63%
Munich 1531 average pax load 43 LF 36%
Cork 1131 average pax load 63 LF 53%
Dublin 9164 flown by 2 airlines though in November only Flybe will be on the route.
Milan 2196 average pax load 61 LF 52%
Faro 3298 average pax load 92 LF 78%

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I'm a bit surprised that Berlin wasn't a bit higher although it's early days. I wonder if London City needs to rise a bit too. It's said to be continuing so long as the demand is there.

As aways we never know the important figure - the yield.

 

[Jerry]

I'm a bit surprised that Berlin wasn't a bit higher although it's early days. I wonder if London City needs to rise a bit too. It's said to be continuing so long as the demand is there.

As always we never know the important figure - the yield.

Yes considering it was brought in early for 'high demand' was the quote it has not exactly taken off but it is early days. I do wonder with the German routes if they may need more advertisement the other side to attract more tourists. I know that there has been advertisement this side especially towards Xmas markets but the German routes might be vital connections that CWL needs but may never do spectacularly well and if/when CWL gets some E175s would be more suited to them. Also the codeshare with TXL isn't very good if you are heading east because Etihad won't let Air Berlin do eastern routes!
By the scheduling of BHD and GLA it looks like LCY will be returning and i wonder if it's a route where the yield is more important than the passenger numbers because it's main target is business passengers though they are advertising it as a tourist route especially as a day trip. I think it will be announced at the end of the month.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Passenger numbers are of secondary importance to airlines if the yield is up to scratch. Rynanair, for example, has axed routes that consistently showed 90%plus load factors but retain others year after year with lower load factors. I can give specific examples.

Without knowing the fare structures, deals with the airports etc it's impossible for outsiders to say whether a 46% load factor on the LCY routes is acceptable to the airline - it might well be. bmi regional gets by with this sort of load factor on a number of its routes but the fares are frequently spectacularly eye-watering.

Airports though like high passenger numbers because of the ancillary spend the footfall brings.

 

[Jerry]

Yes in the end it is about the yield per passenger. The LF's may look low but if they are making money then the airline will be happy. Flybe must feel there could be potential for them to trial LCY. If LCY doesn't come off then i wonder if they have other routes in mind?

 

[superking]

if they have other routes in mind then they would be trying them now if lcy is pulled as another new route would be well tested and not having to start something if 1 route fails. that's my thoughts.

 

[Jerry]

The only new routes that could be operated in those slots that i can think of would be a daily morning AMS or a twice daily MAN. Otherwise it would be increasing frequencies on either GLA, DUB or EDI.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Flybe is obviously getting a satisfactory yield from its CWL base overall because it would not have returned (having pulled out a couple of years before saying its CWL routes were uneconomic) without financial assurances/guarantees from the government as airport owners.

It's public knowledge that £13 million was loaned by the WAG to its airport company for route development. Flybe has certainly been a beneficiary and in turn has increased airport footfall dramatically, with Vueling also contributing significantly, so the seed corn money is already seeing the crop beginning to grow.

How much, if at all, the LCY route depends on this support would be commercially sensitive. However, if the LCY route is part of the overall support package then it might be supposed it will continue to operate.

There will come a time when the £13 million has been spent but the airport owners clearly believe that by then CWL will be in the healthy position of not requiring such assistance.

 

[CraigW92]

With regards to LCY, I believe this will do a lot better at the 2 X daily rather than the 3 X daily which it was originally operated at during the tunnel closure, the main reason I believe the stats were around the half load percentage is the afternoon rotation. Typically after using this service 3 times there was no more than 27 on this where as the morning and evening rotations would be over the 70-80% factor, occasionally full, it will be interesting to see the comparison of loads when the stats come out for November.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/transp...flights-from-aberdeen-and-edinburgh-1-4311893

Flybe is reportedly going to fly from ABZ and EDI to LHR from next March using the Little Red slots.

If they do they might use the E195 aircraft so CWL might see a more realistic E170.

 

[Jerry]

An E175 would be more suited for the German routes and Cork and CDG but the E195 would be needed for Faro, Milan and hopefully Rome. 1 of each would be a good mix unless they based 3 E175s and increased frequencies on some of the routes.