I thought I'd spend a quiet Sunday morning recapping where the MAN long haul programme is and where we may see changes to existing routes, the status of confirmed new routes as well as some possible new routes over the next 2/3 years.
Current Routes where changes may occur
JFK - this has seen significant growth over the past year with TCX, DL and AA operating a pretty much daily service. TCX are to go to daily in summer 2017 (early reports put this at 9x weekly which may still happen?) and AA and DL are moving towards offering the B764 product. An option for an afternoon flight would be a positive development here as would year-round widebody service from the US legacy carriers.
IAD – a seasonal but daily route operated by UA. I don’t know what equipment they use although I suspect it will be a B757? It would be good to see this become year round, if less frequent in winter. Prices seem very high (per Skyscanner) so if they are using a B757 they may want to reconsider a B767.
ORD – as with IAD, this is also a daily seasonal route operated by AA (but with only January to March being free of flights). From June to October 2016 this is operated by the B788. Making this year round with a B788 or B767 would be a sold next step before a year round widebody service.
EWR – UA operate daily using a B757. Moving them towards the B767 on a year round basis would be a good upgrade. The B764 came in today, hopefully we will see this more regularly.
MIA – operated by TCX and to be increased to 3x weekly. May be a route where more competition could join in time (a VS or TOM route perhaps?).
ATL – I would like to mention this, as it is a route that has been performing very well. It will be interesting to see whether the addition of more services to the West Cost and other parts of the US (particularly if a Dallas service begins) will impact this, as I suspect most people on this route will be connecting. This is a daily A333, and there is no immediate way of increasing capacity, unless a B744 is used and these are being phased out. This may be an option for the A351 if VS order as rumoured.
HKG – CX have performed superbly on this route and it is expected that the current 4x weekly will be doubled to 8x weekly. It is not known whether the B77W will continue to be used (they do well on freight) or if this will change to the A359.
SIN – SQ will need to follow CX’s lead at some point, and it cannot come soon enough. De-coupling from MUC whilst continuing to offer a daily service may need the A359 but it has been done in the past with a B772 and CX want to increase, possibly still with the B77W. They need to do something soon because the MEB3 and CX offer a one stop kangaroo route and connecting to SE Asia. SQ offers two stops. Even on the route to their own hub SQ offer one stop – the same as the MEB3 and others. Whilst they continue to have reasonable patronage, they are obviously losing customers to the MEB3 (Emirates in particular) and CX.
DXB – EK continues to perform strongly from MAN. It seems likely that either a 4th daily or the conversion of the early morning flight to A380 will be announced in 2016. This will be interesting as the B77W carries far more cargo than the A380. Triple A380 ops may need a dedicated cargo service, which would go against recent trends.
AUH – as with the other members of the MEB3, EY have had a good year. They are at a point where they have a 2x daily B77W service, which are very full, and to increase capacity they are either looking at using an A380 or adding a third daily flight. They have few A380s (although they have indicated they want to bring it to MAN one day, and one of MANs renders of the TP shows an EY A380) so I think that is unlikely for now. Moving to a three daily operation and using more A330s and B789s seems to me to be the most likely next step if they want to increase capacity.
DOH – QR are approaching the point where they use a double daily B77W. They still use a mix of A330, B788 and B77W and either just have or are about to go double daily. They have time to follow the template of EK and EY.
LHE – we are aware of PIA’s current battle, which I think most expect them to win.
YYZ – currently served by Air Canada Rouge and Air Transaat (I think both are seasonal). Whilst it would be nice to get the “full fat” Air Canada I think the priority should be to get the route year round. The demand exists (or it certainly used to exist) for a 4/5x weekly operation year round so I don’t think the route would tank if launched.
YVR – currently served on a seasonal basis by Air Transaat. It would be good if Air Canada could operate this, but I think we are a long way away from that. Making it a regular year round route would be a good step forwards.
Soon to be Served
LAX – TCX to commence the route at 2x weekly in May using the A330. This will remain at 2x weekly over the winter, and is due to increase to 3x weekly from summer 2017 (this has been removed from the provisional S17 timetable). There have been rumours about VS being interested in this route but there has been no public comment. With luck the frequency increase for 2017 is a sign of what is to come, and options and frequency will increase on this route over the next year or two.
SFO – TCX seem to have tipped their hand at starting this route in the summer 2017 at 2x weekly using the A330. As with LAX, VS are rumoured to have interest in this route, but there has been no public comment. I should note that TCX have removed SFO from the provisional timetable, but this is not unusual (I am told!).
BOS – TCX to commence the route at 2x weekly in May using the A330. This looks like a seasonal route for now.
PEK – Hainan to start this route on 10 June 4x weekly using the A333. This has already been up-gauged from the A332, hopefully a sign of advance bookings. They have stated that they want to make this a daily operation in future.
PVG – Air China are expected to announce this shortly before Hainan start their route. Presume it will use the A330 but no indication about frequency. I think it is reasonable to assume that they will mirror Hainan and start at 4x weekly with an aspiration to go daily.
HKT – TOM to commence this as a fortnightly (i.e. one flight every 14 days) in the winter of 2016 (I am not sure which month?) using the B788. Obviously one flight every two weeks is not ideal, but as a bucket and spade charter type operation as part of a package holiday it probably works.
MRU – TOM to commence this as (I think) fortnightly in the winter of 2016 using the B788. As with HKT as part of a bucket and spade charter type operation as part of a package holiday it probably works.
GOI - TOM to add this to their network. Similar basis to MRU.
Unserved Routes that may be feasible in the short/medium term
DFW – this is a major hub for AA, primarily for South America. AA have previously tweeted their desire to run MAN-DFW using a B788 so it is a case of “watch this space” although nothing much has changed over a long period.
KUL – previously served by MH using the B744 this remains a major market that is consistently in the MEB3’s most popular destinations ex MAN. Had MH been in a better financial position, I think they would be looking at the opportunities at MAN. As it happens, D7 have shown an interest in the past and have recently indicated that they might consider running into LGW. Might this be back on the cards?
BKK – I don’t know if this has been served previously. TG have apparently had their eye on MAN for some time but like MH they are in a poor financial position. A shame, because I think they would do well from MAN with their onwards connections. This is one of the routes where TCX may see an expansion opportunity over the next couple of years.
CPT/JNB – these have been tried in the past, but SAA are not in a position to return (and may not want to in any event). It is probably an either or scenario, but I strongly think TCX can make MAN-CPT work as a 3/4x weekly operation – particularly as a winter operation. I think they run the route from LGW, so this may be on the cards before too long.
HND – we know that JAL have been sniffing around, but very little seems to have happened. Rumoured at 4x weekly. They may be waiting to see how Hainan and Air China impact on CX and whether CX up-gauge to 8x weekly.
DEL – one for Air India perhaps. Understandably their focus is on Birmingham but I would think the wider north would have the population and business connections for regular flights.
BOM – one for Air India and/or Jet Airways to look at. Understandably their focus is on Birmingham but I would think the wider north would have the population and business connections for regular flights.
RUH – strong indications that Saudia will start this soon.
I know that User_001 has suggested that Seattle, Denver, Reno, Charlotte may be feasible, and Land23R has suggested Detroit and Tampa, but my feeling is that looking at the network in the round, you would not get the transfer traffic to support these on top of the other (more likely) addition of Dallas on top of Los Angeles and San Francisco. I have not looked at Orlando or Philadelphia as I don’t know enough about them.
From a personal perspective, if Hainan and Air China do well I could see further new routes to China start quite quickly. In particular, China Southern to Guangzhou seems like a serous possibility. I obviously have my own ideas about ANZ running to MAN via LAX/SFO but accept that whilst it has been looked at in the past there is no indication that expansion to Europe is on ANZ’s radar at present. That aside, if the above routes are established, I would like to see a period of consolidation and strengthening of what we have to regular year round services to hopefully strengthen the business community of the north in general and make use of the infrastructure improvements that we hope to see over the next 10 years of so (including NPR and HS2).
