Leeds Bradford: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[YorkshireLad]

The raw data I have gathered for Faro. The colours account for accuracy, so I always take the raw figure for dark green, round slightly up on light green, and add maybe around 20-30 for amber before subtracting 3.5% from the overall figure

 

[BCFC]

View attachment 33462
View attachment 33463

The raw data I have gathered for Faro. The colours account for accuracy, so I always take the raw figure for dark green, round slightly up on light green, and add maybe around 20-30 for amber before subtracting 3.5% from the overall figure

Really interesting that, thank you…..hope they don't drop the route as I don't fancy going on a Jet2 classic in the low season.

 

[YorkshireLad]

Really interesting that, thank you…..hope they don't drop the route as I don't fancy going on a Jet2 classic in the low season.

I doubt they will. I'd say it was a victim of poor timings - something I'll probably go into more detail on when I do a Ryanair-specific analysis at some point

 

[Scottie Dog]

April data from the CAA will now not be available until Wednesday 17th June. Ì am away at a meeting on Wednesday & Thursday and will provide my reports as soon as possible after that date.

 

[YorkshireLad]

My super awesome amazing superb insight into loads will definitely not be ready until at least Friday. Failing that, it'll be Sunday/Monday, which is probably more likely as I will attempt to go even further than I have before with my data. I also still should do my in-depth look at the March loads for Ryanair and easyJet seeing as that was the winter schedule, as well as April. Luckily I will absolutely have time on my hands from the end of this week onwards

 

[lbaspotter]

Ryanair Leeds - Faro route is on sale for winter 26/27 operating 2x weekly Mon & Fri.

 

[White Heather]

Just for information ahead of next week's ACC, the passenger figures for this financial year to date (part April, May, and the first two weeks of June) are just short of 1,135,000. June is on target to achieve half a million pax in the month.

 

[BCFC]

Ryanair Leeds - Faro route is on sale for winter 26/27 operating 2x weekly Mon & Fri.

If Fri is a 6am flight perfect for a golf weekend!

 

[HX3]

Caa stats for April are out - 389,660 up 7%

 

[White Heather]

Caa stats for April are out - 389,660 up 7%

The LBA version for April is 390,117.

492,091 in May.

252,723 for June up to the end of last week.

 

[YorkshireLad]

Thought I'd mention, from a first glance, looks like we haven't lost out too badly from the effects of the recent conflict. Loads to Cyprus and Turkey seem to be holding up decently, and we haven't seen the same reductions in pax volume that MAN has (particularly to Turkey)

 

[gulftraveller]

Thought I'd mention, from a first glance, looks like we haven't lost out too badly from the effects of the recent conflict. Loads to Cyprus and Turkey seem to be holding up decently, and we haven't seen the same reductions in pax volume that MAN has (particularly to Turkey)

You really are not comparing like with like. In April (the most recent stats), MAN had considerably more than 10 times the passenger numbers to Turkey as LBA, so percentage reductions will equal larger volumes. The Turkish market has been weakening everywhere - thus the SXS withdrawal from a number of airports.

 

[YorkshireLad]

You really are not comparing like with like. In April (the most recent stats), MAN had considerably more than 10 times the passenger numbers to Turkey as LBA, so percentage reductions will equal larger volumes. The Turkish market has been weakening everywhere - thus the SXS withdrawal from a number of airports.

I feel that for an airport our size it would be a pretty reasonable comparison to make. We need every edge we can get over our competitors (not wishing ill on other airports, just even better fortune on us)
I should have probably made it clearer though - in April our figures to Antalya and Dalaman were +5% and - 5% respectively, compared to -29% and -15% from Manchester, which is what I was more referring to - given the different market sizes it's the difference from just beyond annual variation to proper market contraction

 

[Scottie Dog]

Slightly later than usual, but here is my take on the CAA April data:

 

[LBA4EVER]

I feel that for an airport our size it would be a pretty reasonable comparison to make. We need every edge we can get over our competitors (not wishing ill on other airports, just even better fortune on us)
I should have probably made it clearer though - in April our figures to Antalya and Dalaman were +5% and - 5% respectively, compared to -29% and -15% from Manchester, which is what I was more referring to - given the different market sizes it's the difference from just beyond annual variation to proper market contraction

With MAN though you have the low cost bucket and spade flights ie jet2, tui and then of course the airlines of turkey that use MAN such as turkish and pegasus, so would be interested to see a breakdown in pax figures between these 2 types of flights and different markets at MAN.
The low cost flight pax figures between LBA and MAN would be more interesting to view.

 

[Speedbird1]

Caa stats for April are out - 389,660 up 7%

Strong numbers but I’d always compare to how much more capacity there is YoY. My understanding is seat capacity was up 9% vs April 2025.

Still all going in the right direction!

 

[HX3]

Good point @Speedbird1, and I suppose that proves that if carriers provide the capacity, the market will adjust accordingly and less leakage to competitor airports.

 

[YorkshireLad]

Ok, I have worked a decent length of time on Friday and most of today, but I have finally finished my analysis of load factors on routes from LBA in April, including itemised by airline (except Antalya, SunExpress not allowing me to check seat maps easily and Jet2 not being reliable enough)

Additionally, I have been able to compare the loads on Ryanair and easyJet routes on both 1-15 and 16-30 April, enabling me to show what difference the Easter Holidays make to average loads. However, do take the results with a hefty bucket of salt as I have no published data to work with specifically on this, and I have been mainly estimating the figures using already estimated data. They should still tell the story though

As usual, my own research, comparing to actual figures can only yield so much accuracy, may or may not be furthest from the truth etc. Also bear in mind my data collection has been marginally more sporadic than in March, so I've had to estimate the gaps, so the margin of error has slightly increased, so take it as mostly accurate to within around 5% as opposed to 3%

Nominal Data

Destination	Passengers	Flights	Pax/Flight	Load Factor
Agadir	5,614	34	165	87%
Alicante	38,106	240	159	86%
Amsterdam	16,849	178	95	80%
Antalya	13,572	82	166	88%
Barcelona	4,316	34	127	78%
Belfast City	12,831	232	55	77%
Belfast Intl	4,793	34	141	78%
Bodrum	1,092	8	137	72%
Bratislava	2,952	18	164	87%
Bucharest	11,245	60	187	86%
Budapest	1,907	16	119	81%
Catania	1,294	10	129	69%
Chambery	822	5	164	91%
Chania	1,149	8	144	73%
Cluj-Napoca	3,373	16	211	88%
Corfu	1,273	8	159	84%
Dalaman	5,546	34	163	86%
Dublin	37,211	314	119	81%
Dubrovnik	1,988	16	124	84%
Faro	15,133	102	148	86%
Fuerteventura	8,904	52	171	89%
Funchal	1,344	8	168	89%
Gdansk	7,356	44	167	89%
Geneva	3,905	30	130	78%
Girona	5,108	42	122	70%
Gran Canaria	5,243	34	154	83%
Grenoble	7	1	7	5%
Heraklion	3,060	18	170	90%
Ibiza	4,595	36	128	73%
Izmir	1,061	8	133	70%
Keflavik	1,140	8	143	75%
Krakow	15,056	94	160	85%
Kristiansand	288	2	144	97%
Lanzarote	13,193	78	169	89%
Larnaca	2,760	16	173	91%
Malaga	28,391	188	151	88%
Malta	2,623	16	164	87%
Manchester	125	1	125	85%
Marrakesh	2,357	18	131	69%
Menorca	940	8	118	79%
Naples	2,392	18	133	90%
Palma de Mallorca	27,999	192	146	82%
Paphos	4,194	26	161	85%
Paris CDG	7,659	49	156	87%
Porto	2,955	18	164	87%
Poznan	3,512	24	146	75%
Prague	2,375	18	132	89%
Reus	7,484	52	144	77%
Rhodes	2,043	16	128	68%
Riga	7,468	44	170	88%
Rome FCO	2,169	16	136	92%
Tarbes-Lourdes	141	1	141	95%
Tenerife	16,163	91	178	93%
Turin	283	2	142	96%
Warsaw Chopin	9,418	52	181	83%
Wroclaw	6,291	42	150	78%

A couple of notes: The 7 passengers to Grenoble is I believe the final seasonal flight to Chambery. The inbound still seems to count towards Chambery's figures
The 125 passengers to Manchester is I believe from when Jet2 operated a rescue flight to Tenerife when their A330 flight was cancelled, the load was split across 2 planes, 1 of which was a B733 from LBA. I don't know whether the flight counted towards TFS figures, but I included it anyway

By Airline

Aer Lingus

Belfast City	12,831	232	55	77%
Dublin	6,363	120	53	74%

easyJet

Barcelona	1,962	18	109	70%
Belfast Intl	4,793	34	141	78%
Malaga	2,421	18	135	86%
Palma de Mallorca	3,400	26	131	77%
Paris CDG	2,256	15	150	85%

Jet2

Agadir	3,008	18	167	89%
Alicante	17,484	110	159	93%
Barcelona	2,354	16	147	87%
Bodrum	1,092	8	137	72%
Budapest	1,907	16	119	81%
Catania	1,294	10	129	69%
Chambery	822	5	164	91%
Corfu	1,273	8	159	84%
Dalaman	5,546	34	163	86%
Dubrovnik	1,988	16	124	84%
Faro	9,267	62	149	94%
Fuerteventura	5,838	34	172	91%
Funchal	1,344	8	168	89%
Geneva	3,905	30	130	78%
Girona	1,927	18	107	72%
Gran Canaria	5,243	34	154	82%
Grenoble	7	1	7	5%
Heraklion	3,060	18	170	90%
Ibiza	2,277	18	127	83%
Izmir	1,061	8	133	70%
Keflavik	1,140	8	143	75%
Krakow	2,099	16	131	78%
Lanzarote	10,439	60	174	92%
Larnaca	2,760	16	173	91%
Malaga	13,429	92	146	92%
Malta	2,623	16	164	87%
Marrakesh	2,357	18	131	69%
Menorca	940	8	118	79%
Naples	2,392	18	133	90%
Palma de Mallorca	11,797	76	155	94%
Paphos	4,194	26	161	85%
Paris CDG	5,403	34	159	89%
Prague	2,375	18	132	89%
Reus	2,205	16	138	79%
Rhodes	2,043	16	128	68%
Rome FCO	2,169	16	136	92%
Tenerife	13,017	72	181	96%

KLM

Amsterdam

16,849

178

95

80%

Ryanair

Agadir	2,606	16	163	86%
Alicante	20,622	130	159	81%
Bratislava	2,952	18	164	87%
Bucharest	4,771	26	184	93%
Chania	1,149	8	144	73%
Dublin	30,848	194	159	82%
Faro	5,866	40	147	77%
Fuerteventura	3,066	18	170	87%
Gdansk	7,356	44	167	89%
Girona	3,181	24	133	70%
Ibiza	2,318	18	129	65%
Krakow	12,957	78	166	86%
Lanzarote	2,754	18	153	78%
Malaga	12,540	78	161	84%
Palma de Mallorca	12,616	88	143	76%
Porto	2,955	18	164	87%
Poznan	3,512	24	146	75%
Reus	5,279	36	147	76%
Riga	7,468	44	170	88%
Tenerife	3,021	18	168	85%
Warsaw Chopin	4,304	26	166	84%
Wroclaw	6,291	42	150	78%

TUI Airways

Palma de Mallorca

186

1

186

98%

Wizz Air

Bucharest	6,474	34	190	82%
Cluj Napoca	3,373	16	211	88%
Warsaw Chopin	4,493	26	173	72%

Note: Last month I subtracted 3.5% off the values for Ryanair and easyJet that my raw data provided, and worked out the other airlines from that. This month I subtracted 4.2% as it provided the smallest average error margin, however there were a broader range of error margins I was working with
I manually overrided the data for Malaga and Palma as I found it unlikely they had loads of 95% and 99% respectively. I just didn't subtract anything from the raw data total, seemed to more or less sort the problem out

Comparing the 2 halves of the month

1-15th

easyJet

Barcelona	1,214	10	121	78%
Belfast Intl	2,438	16	152	84%
Malaga	1,406	10	141	90%
Palma de Mallorca	1,978	14	141	84%
Paris CDG	1,049	7	150	85%

Ryanair

Agadir	1,315	8	164	86%
Alicante	10,552	64	165	81%
Bratislava	1,367	8	171	87%
Bucharest	2,550	14	182	93%
Chania	640	4	160	73%
Dublin	16,784	98	171	82%
Faro	3,362	22	153	77%
Fuerteventura	1,590	10	159	87%
Gdansk	3,781	22	172	89%
Girona	1,772	12	148	70%
Ibiza	1,198	8	150	65%
Krakow	6,839	40	171	86%
Lanzarote	1,653	10	165	78%
Malaga	6,441	38	170	84%
Palma de Mallorca	6,873	44	156	76%
Porto	1,608	10	161	87%
Poznan	1,845	12	154	75%
Reus	2,806	18	156	76%
Riga	3,788	22	172	88%
Tenerife	1,396	8	175	85%
Warsaw Chopin	2,067	12	172	84%
Wroclaw	3,267	20	163	78%

16-30th

easyJet

Barcelona	748	8	94	60%
Belfast Intl	2,355	18	131	73%
Malaga	1,015	8	127	81%
Palma de Mallorca	1,422	12	119	69%
Paris CDG	1,207	8	151	85%

Ryanair

Agadir	1,291	8	161	85%
Alicante	10,070	66	153	78%
Bratislava	1,585	10	159	84%
Bucharest	2,221	12	185	94%
Chania	509	4	127	65%
Dublin	14,064	96	147	75%
Faro	2,504	18	139	73%
Fuerteventura	1,476	8	185	94%
Gdansk	3,575	22	163	86%
Girona	1,409	12	117	62%
Ibiza	1,120	10	112	57%
Krakow	6,118	38	161	83%
Lanzarote	1,101	8	138	70%
Malaga	6,099	40	152	80%
Palma de Mallorca	5,743	44	131	69%
Porto	1,347	8	168	89%
Poznan	1,667	12	139	72%
Reus	2,473	18	137	71%
Riga	3,680	22	167	87%
Tenerife	1,625	10	163	83%
Warsaw Chopin	2,237	14	160	81%
Wroclaw	3,024	22	137	71%

Notes: As I said earlier, take this data with a very large bucket of salt. Especially Fuerteventura, I have no idea what happened there. It should more or less show the trends with half term as opposed to outside it though


Overall, probably more or less what I expected from LBA, I'm encouraged to see the overall loads being decent all round. If anyone has any queries, I still have all the data (he says, like there's a chance he's getting rid of any of it). As is probably clear by the data, the first half of the month had most flights full, with a slightly quieter second half of the month (though there was a spike in loads right at the end of the month, carrying over into the first week of May). On all routes, especially the most frequent ones (except Dublin, that follows its own pattern), the loads are much higher on outbounds in the early day through to the late afternoon, and can drop quite substantially into the evening (especially Faro). The opposite is true for inbounds, where the early flights are the lightest loaded, increasing by the mid-morning/midday, though routes like Bratislava and Porto get away with it by having all their flights arrive at LBA early in the morning

 

[LBAYORKIE]

Thanks, I can see just how much effort has gone into this. You must like spreadsheets!

 

[Finger66]

Thanks, I can see just how much effort has gone into this. You must like spreadsheets!

Yes he Excels at them!