Cold Winter, Mild Summer?

[Scottie Dog]

Historical the third week of November sees the appearance first Summer report from ACL.

Obviously, as we are all aware, Thomas Cook are no longer with us and, in S19, they were shown to have 10,097 movements scheduled. Will we make up the 2,441,653 passengers, or an average of 241 seats per flight, that those movements provided?

As soon as anything is in the public domain I'll provide details here - they will of course be subject to change as programmes are finalised.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Reported on Twitter by Airport news UK that Turkish will increase their Manchester capacity from 28th March by using an A330 8 times per week compared with 3 times a week last summer. The other flights will use an A321

 

[Scottie Dog]

Okay, are you sitting comfortably? The start of S20 report is now available. Please remember that all applications and other information is subject to change and therefore must be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage.

Passengers - +12.1%
Movements - +9.2%

Adria Airways - Cancelled
Air Arabia Maroc - Cancelled
Air Malta - Increase from 1 to 2 per week
Air Baltic - New 4 times weekly service to Riga with A220-300
Alitalia - Once again have applied for slots to Milan Linate on a daily basis with an A320
American Airlines - Philadelphia stays at daily. B767-300 for the summer, replaces B787-8 between January-March
Austrian - Changes from EM190 to A319 on daily Vienna
Biman Bangladesh - New service, as previously announced 3 times per week from 5th January and increasing to 4 per week for S20
Cathay - Daily A350-1000 for the summer
Corendon Airlines - Daily Antalya service plus 9 per week to Bodrum. Both with B737-800
Delta - return between 22nd May-8th September to Boston with B757-200
easyJet - reported to be increasing by 4 aircraft from 17 to 21, but more likely to be 19 due to terminal capacity
Fly Ernest - Cancelled
Flybe - New daily Stuttgart and an unknown domestic destination. The previously announced reduction in services results in a 3% loss of capacity
FlyEgypt - 4 times weekly B737-800 charter service to Hurghada
Freebird - proposed A320 service 8 times per week to Antalya and Dalaman
Iberia Express - Increase from 4 to 5 per week
Icelandair- Up from 7 to 8 per week with an extra evening flight on Sunday
Indigo - Although no wide-bodied aircraft they have applied for daily services to both Mumbai and Delhi
Jet2 - Based aircraft increase from 19 to 24. Also a B737-800 changes to B757 and a B757 to A300-200
Juneyao - As already announced today a new service to Shanghai with a B787-9 3 times per week via Helsinki
Loganair - Norwich returns from 2 to 3 per day plus extra Stornaway
LOT Polish Airlines - Planned 2 x daily to Warsaw with EMB190
Lufthansa - Planned increase on Munich from 3 to 4 per day
Norwegian - Continues twice weekly to Bergen from W19
Pakistan International - New service to Sialkot once per week with B777-300. Islamabad increases to daily and Lahore stays at twice weekly - all B777-300
Qatar Airways - B777-300 on both morning and lunchtime service with B787-8 in the evening
Ryanair - 1 extra based aircraft plus additional non-based flights. Approximately 23% passenger increase against S19
Scandinavian Airlines - Stavanger continues from W19. Stockholm increases from 2 to 3 daily and Bergen increases from 2 to 3 per week
Smartlynx - Propose to base 2 A321 aircraft for 28 weekly charters
TAP - Increase Lisbon from 13 to 14 per week
Thai International - Proposed Bangkok service from July with A350-900. Slots held for daily service but likely to be 4 per week
Transavia France - Possible twice weekly Orly flight with B737-800
TUI - Increase based aircraft from 14 to 19
Turkish - Change of aircraft type.A330-300 on 7 flights per day with the rest on A321
Virgin Atlantic - Based aircraft up from 6 to 7. Some additional slots held to unspecified destination

 

[User1007]

Not really surprising, but there seems a decent appetite to replace Thomas Cook short haul, but not so much for long haul.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Not really surprising, but there seems a decent appetite to replace Thomas Cook short haul, but not so much for long haul.

Because I was rushing to post the details before the laptop battery died I didn't do a full look at the TUI longhaul list. I'll try to remember to check tomorrow at some time.
You might have noticed that I've amended the passenger and movement numbers as I had misread the stats.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The latest update has been made available to me from ACL:

Winter 2019
Movements currently down 2.1%
Seats down 1.6%

Summer 2020
Planned movements up 23.9%
Planned seats up 27.2%

Brussels Airlines are planning to add an additional service, daily except Saturday, for S20 with an A319 - 1800/1845z

easyJet are proposing a new 4 times per week service to Brussels for S20, Mon. Wed, Fri and Sunday whilst Hurghada will continue from the winter.

Ryanair are showing a planned twice weekly service, Thu & Sun to Kerry

Vueling are planning an increase to Barcelona from 8 to 11 per week with extra flights on Tue, Wed & Thu with an A320. This compares with 10 in S19. Times are 0945/1025z

Westjet have plans for a new daily service to Halifax from 1st June with a B737-MAX8. Timings are 0710/0845z

 

[jfy1999]

I don't know if the following have been reported already on here:

Nouvelair have applied to serve Enfidha 4 times per week.

Ryanair have applied to serve Antalya, Bodrum, Beauvais, Copenhagen, Catania, Dalaman, La Rochelle, Knock, Oslo Gardermoen, Oudija, Paphos, and Szczecin. This is in addition to Pisa which is already bookable and Kerry as mentioned above.

 

[User1007]

Any ideas when we might expect to hear an announcement from Ryanair or Easyjet if they do add any flights for the summer? I seem to recall Easyjet waited very late this year.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

EasyJet and Ryanair don't adhere to the traditional pattern of launching all new Summer services exclusively in April or May. It is not unusual for new EZY/RYR services to appear in mid-Summer, eg. August. This is particularly the case if the new services relate to the arrival of an additional based aircraft which may not be available till mid-season. With Ryanair, we know that they can likely base just one additional aircraft (number 13) at best due to capacity limits in T3. But EasyJet could add more in T1 if they're minded to. Though they will likely prioritise LGW and BRS increases first since they have purchased TCX slots at these airports and need to fill them. Plenty of time for new announcements yet.

 

[Statto]

The latest update has been made available to me from ACL:

Winter 2019
Movements currently down 2.1%
Seats down 1.6%

Summer 2020
Planned movements up 23.9%
Planned seats up 27.2%

Hi - what is being compared to what to get the 27% growth. Considering the annual passenger total at MAN is just short of 30 million, wouldn’t growth of 27% be the equivalent of an additional 8 million passengers per year (if services maintained into the following winter), And this would be after compensating for the loss of TCX too.

 

[Scottie Dog]

The figure is based upon the number of seats applicable to the aircraft types shown on the slot request.

Obviously this figure will reduce considerably as slots are returned. I'll try looking at the breakdown if I get a reasonable bit of time to spare.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Jet2 - Based aircraft increase from 19 to 24. Also a B737-800 changes to B757 and a B757 to A300-200

This include the 4 A321?

 

[Scottie Dog]

Based on what I have seen Thomas Cook are showing as being 2,478,186 seats down on Summer 2019 - this obviously being the fact that they no longer exist. In fact the Initial S19 report showed TCX as 2,861,184 as a comparison

In comparison Jet2 are showing a Full Season Allocation increase of 3,473,788 seats and Easyjet 1,145,022.

I'll look further when I get a chance but it might not be for a few days.

 

[Scottie Dog]

This include the 4 A321?

A good question. Another thing I need to do some digging on!
😴

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Sorry but thank you @Scottie Dog. If it doesn't that takes aircraft count to 28. That brings Jet2 7 short of 35 which was the number Monarch had when they, sadly, went bust. And thats at ONE base alone.

 

[User1007]

I expect 24 includes the Airbuses. Five aircraft is in itself a huge service expansion for one summer.

 

[Statto]

Based on what I have seen Thomas Cook are showing as being 2,478,186 seats down on Summer 2019 - this obviously being the fact that they no longer exist. In fact the Initial S19 report showed TCX as 2,861,184 as a comparison

In comparison Jet2 are showing a Full Season Allocation increase of 3,473,788 seats and Easyjet 1,145,022.

I'll look further when I get a chance but it might not be for a few days.

Thanks. It’s probably the Jet2 increase that is skewing the numbers. They have ‘over 3 million seats’ in total on sale for s20, as opposed to the increase being 3 million.

https://www.jet2.com/News/Celebrating_15_years_of_flying_from_Manchester_Airport/

 

[Llandudno]

Jet2 on the S20 initial allocation had 6.1m seats listed against them.

That's already whittled down as they have already handed back approx 6 daily slot pairs that were used for the Thomas Cook Long Haul operation since that allocation was published.

What's worth pointing out is that Jet2 say that they will have 3m seats on sale, but even today have announced another new route that wasn't listed in the article above and likely Lisbon will follow too.

It's a case of watch this space. Jet2 have ambition, they have the slot portfolio and if they can get the aircraft, could, realistically, sit between 3.5m and 4m seats in S20.....

 

[Scottie Dog]

The latest update I have gives the following:

Winter 2019
Movements -2.5%
Seats -1.7% ompared with W18 actual

Changes
Enter Air move from T2 to T1

Summer 2020
Projected movements +22.9%
Projected seats +26.7% compared with actual S19

Air Arabia (E5) – A new three per week Sharm el Sheik service with A320 May-Oct, Tue, Thu and Sat.

CANCELLATIONS

Air Canada (AC) – slots for the previously announced daily service are reduced by one. Friday is apparently cancelled.

Loganair (LM) – As already well published the Norwich route is cancelled for S20 (from January in fact).

Luxair (LG) – All slots returned for planned Luxembourg service.

Virgin Atlantic (VS) – Slots for two extra aircraft have been released. Most days 6 flights operate, so 6 aircraft based.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Having just posted an ACL update - that I actually loaded yesterday but failed to post!! - here is another.

Report for period : 12 - 13Dec 2019

WINTER 2019 - (compared with W18 season actual).
Planned Air Transport Movements are currently -2.5%
Seats -1.7%

SUMMER 2019 - (compared with S19 season actual)
Planned Air Transport Movements are currently +16.6%
Seats +19.8% .

Note: IATA S20 Slot return deadline is this weekend 15th December 2019.


CHANGES

Biman Bangladesh (BG) – Time change for new DAC/ZYL service to an evening service to 30Jun 1800-2000z, then from 02Jul 1140/1345z. Changes due runway works in ZYL.

Jet2.com (LS) – Destinations PMI and AYT move from T2 to T1 for S20.

Thai (TG) – Slots were held full season for proposed new BKK service, now trimmed back to 01May start, but 01Jul is also possible, TG976/7 A350-900 0525/1215z.

Westjet (WS) – Slots were held daily for proposed new YHZ (Halifax), now trimmed to four per week Mon, Tue, Thu and Sat 01Jun-24Oct 0710/0845z with B737-MAX8.

CANCELLATIONS

Alitalia (AZ) – Slots cancelled for proposed LIN (Milan Linate)

Eurowings (EW) – Reduction on DUS to x14pw. S19 was x18pw and W19 is x24pw.

Jet2.com (LS) – Significant handbacks of slots from the pool of slots transferred from Thomas Cook, initial seat growth was +118% but now +49%. Further cancellations to be made but still a large volume of growth with the extra five based A321’s and upgrade to a 3rd A330 and a B757.

LOT (LO) – Slots cancelled

SAS (SK) – Slots for historic AAR (Aarhus) cancelled. Additional ARN slots were held to increase x13pw to x18pw but now continues x13pw.