Leeds Bradford: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

Good analysis Yorkshire Lad. How are you coming up with the splits when you have more than one airline on the same route - e.g. how do you identify Jet2's CDG passengers from Easyjet's? And how do you cope with changing aircraft size (Jet2 using 733 vs 738, Ryanair using Max-8 vs standard 800s). I wasn't aware that detail was published by the CAA

LBAYORKIE said:

Thanks, I can see just how much effort has gone into this. You must like spreadsheets!

Click to expand...

You clearly know me well

Statto said:

Good analysis Yorkshire Lad. How are you coming up with the splits when you have more than one airline on the same route - e.g. how do you identify Jet2's CDG passengers from Easyjet's? And how do you cope with changing aircraft size (Jet2 using 733 vs 738, Ryanair using Max-8 vs standard 800s). I wasn't aware that detail was published by the CAA

Click to expand...

Well, for the airline splits I look at easyJet and Ryanairs booking engines (yes - I do this every day). The raw data often differs slightly to what I get from the CAA, so I usually compare routes with no competition to see how I should alter this data to get the most likely accurate result, then calculate other airlines based off this. To picture, using your CDG example, I check easyJet's passenger figures on their flights to CDG each night before there is one. Preferably I can get the load on how many passengers it will let me have and still select the flight, if I need to look at the seat map I will check the maps on the day for maximum accuracy. Then when the CAA data comes out, I calculate the Jet2 figures by subtracting the easyJet figures. The raw data is always slightly off, so to compensate I will check how my data compares to the CAA figures on routes with only one airline (for April: easyJet to BFS, Ryanair to BTS, CHQ, GDN, OPO, POZ, RIX, WRO)
For changing aircraft size it's a case of finding out which aircraft operated how many flights, then taking the average capacity per flight over a month. For this I like to use my own rolling schedule spreadsheet (yep, more spreadsheets), alternatively I can use flightera.net (awesome website, has information on pretty much any scheduled flight since September 2017 excluding most of TUI 2020-2022)

I do hope my half past midnight, rambling, possibly mentally sane brain was able to explain this in a readable format

Thanks for taking the time to explain the process. I suppose the key thing to it then is how accurate seat-maps are as a way of estimating load factors. I suppose if they are checked close to departure, they will be updated with the seats that are allocated at check-in for people who haven't paid for an allocated seat?

up 8% for May - LEEDS BRADFORD 491,297 previous year 452,908.

That is an excellent increase. Definitely not all doom and gloom then as some would have us believe!

Up 2% for LBA for June - LEEDS BRADFORD 507,598 previous year 496,774.

I'm currently away with family, however I will produce my usual monthly report as soon as possible - although it may be the weekend before I have been able to do all the work necessary.

HX3 said:

Up 2% for LBA for June - LEEDS BRADFORD 507,598 previous year 496,774.

Click to expand...

Near as damn it 999,000 for May and June combined.

I think it is a good result, not all doom and gloom 😀

HX3 said:

I think it is a good result, not all doom and gloom 😀

Click to expand...

Absolutely, was thinking the same. Any "doom and gloom" that is around is about variety of airlines, but the pax numbers keep rising. And that's at a time when the industry is in turmoil so LBA is still doing something right. And with an increased choice of destinations coming too I see that upward trajectory continuing - even if it is minimal increases. An increase is an increase

Finger66 said:

Absolutely, was thinking the same. Any "doom and gloom" that is around is about variety of airlines, but the pax numbers keep rising. And that's at a time when the industry is in turmoil so LBA is still doing something right. And with an increased choice of destinations coming too I see that upward trajectory continuing - even if it is minimal increases. An increase is an increase

Click to expand...

Which is exactly as stated by the aviation director at the last ACC. He said that in current circumstances, LBA growth would predominantly come from existing airline partners, and he was referring to Jet2/Ryanair.

To put it in perspective, during May and June, LBA handled the equivalent of every person living in the Leeds Metropolitan District, plus a couple of full Wembley Stadiums All through a terminal currently under development.

White Heather said:

To put it in perspective, during May and June, LBA handled the equivalent of every person living in the Leeds Metropolitan District, plus a couple of full Wembley Stadiums All through a terminal currently under development.

Click to expand...

I agree its good news but to service the loans for the new development we need to be moving towards 7m faster.

LBAYORKIE said:

I agree its good news but to service the loans for the new development we need to be moving towards 7m faster.

Click to expand...

I disagree on that. It was always the intention to achieve 7m pax per year by 2030. That is 3.5 years away yet. It was never the intention to even reach 5m passengers yet with the terminal under development as it simply could not cope. The current throughput of around 4.6 - 4.7m is about as good as it gets until the terminal is completed. There is ample time for further expansion from 2027 when the terminal is completed, but much will depend on the archaic night flight restrictions being revised, enabling more based aircraft. We wont hit 7m without them.

As for servicing the loans, neither of us know what terms LBA signed up to, so I am unsure how you justify that comment, particularly given the 7m target is 3.5 years away. I do not believe for one minute that LBA would sign up to loans that would, should 7m pax throughput be delayed, put the business in jeopardy. The aviation industry is renowned for its ups and downs and it would be madness to rely on constant and rapid growth despite history telling us that invariably, within every decade, there is something that occurs that puts a great big spanner in the growth forecasts.

9/11, Economic Crash, Icelandic Volcano, Covid, Trumps War, to name just 5 obvious examples.

Well AENA were confident enough to buy into LBA with their 51% share, with its loans, night flying restrictions, warts and all which they would not have done if they didn’t think LBA has a bright future.

White Heather said:

I disagree on that. It was always the intention to achieve 7m pax per year by 2030. That is 3.5 years away yet. It was never the intention to even reach 5m passengers yet with the terminal under development as it simply could not cope. The current throughput of around 4.6 - 4.7m is about as good as it gets until the terminal is completed. There is ample time for further expansion from 2027 when the terminal is completed, but much will depend on the archaic night flight restrictions being revised, enabling more based aircraft. We wont hit 7m without them.

As for servicing the loans, neither of us know what terms LBA signed up to, so I am unsure how you justify that comment, particularly given the 7m target is 3.5 years away. I do not believe for one minute that LBA would sign up to loans that would, should 7m pax throughput be delayed, put the business in jeopardy. The aviation industry is renowned for its ups and downs and it would be madness to rely on constant and rapid growth despite history telling us that invariably, within every decade, there is something that occurs that puts a great big spanner in the growth forecasts.

9/11, Economic Crash, Icelandic Volcano, Covid, Trumps War, to name just 5 obvious examples.

Click to expand...

Has anything come of the night flying planning application that was mentioned in the notes at the last meeting?

JRP said:

Has anything come of the night flying planning application that was mentioned in the notes at the last meeting?

Click to expand...

Not that I know of. Perhaps delayed. No doubt we will find out at next months ACC.